CAJ | 학술논문

合理的补偿标准是激励农户自愿参与退耕还林工程的关键,而现有退耕还林补偿标准的测算方式没有考虑农户机会成本和损益状况的动态变化和不确定性,激励机制有待完善。文章将实物期权理论引入农户收益测算中,通过数值模拟探讨南北不同地区收益不确定条件下成本收益等额补偿的转换边界,结果表明农户退耕的机会成本随时间和地域变动而变动,科学高效的退耕补偿标准也应随之变动。随后,根据2002-2013年相关统计数据以小麦和稻谷为代表估算南北不同地区退耕地块上退耕农户的机会成本,结合相关政策规定的初值密度和生态林认定标准以杉木和刺槐为代表估算南北不同地区造林成本,进而得到退耕还林的造林净收益,通过比较历年种植农作物和造林的净收益,表明种植农作物的净收益呈现波动上升的状态,2002-2009年期间的退耕还林净收益高于种植农作物的净收益,农户因退耕受益,2010-2013年期间的退耕还林净收益低于种植农作物的净收益,农户因退耕受损。最后,利用几何布朗运动模拟2014-2030年的退耕机会成本的可能走势并与转换边界进行比较,得到粮食产量、补偿标准与农户受损概率之间的关系,结果表明,新一轮退耕还林政策下退耕农户的受损概率随农作物产量的增加而增加,随补偿标准的增加而减小,在相同立地条件和相同补偿标准下南方地区退耕农户受损的概率更大。文章为新一轮退耕还林政策的有效实施提供了理论依据,其政策含义是在中央政府“一刀切”政策现状下,地方政府应结合地域特征和机会成本的变化制定退耕还林补偿标准,在选择退耕地块时应考虑地块的立地条件,避免宜耕地被退。
합리적보상표준시격려농호자원삼여퇴경환림공정적관건,이현유퇴경환림보상표준적측산방식몰유고필농호궤회성본화손익상황적동태변화화불학정성,격려궤제유대완선。문장장실물기권이론인입농호수익측산중,통과수치모의탐토남북불동지구수익불학정조건하성본수익등액보상적전환변계,결과표명농호퇴경적궤회성본수시간화지역변동이변동,과학고효적퇴경보상표준야응수지변동。수후,근거2002-2013년상관통계수거이소맥화도곡위대표고산남북불동지구퇴경지괴상퇴경농호적궤회성본,결합상관정책규정적초치밀도화생태림인정표준이삼목화자괴위대표고산남북불동지구조림성본,진이득도퇴경환림적조림정수익,통과비교력년충식농작물화조림적정수익,표명충식농작물적정수익정현파동상승적상태,2002-2009년기간적퇴경환림정수익고우충식농작물적정수익,농호인퇴경수익,2010-2013년기간적퇴경환림정수익저우충식농작물적정수익,농호인퇴경수손。최후,이용궤하포랑운동모의2014-2030년적퇴경궤회성본적가능주세병여전환변계진행비교,득도양식산량、보상표준여농호수손개솔지간적관계,결과표명,신일륜퇴경환림정책하퇴경농호적수손개솔수농작물산량적증가이증가,수보상표준적증가이감소,재상동입지조건화상동보상표준하남방지구퇴경농호수손적개솔경대。문장위신일륜퇴경환림정책적유효실시제공료이론의거,기정책함의시재중앙정부“일도절”정책현상하,지방정부응결합지역특정화궤회성본적변화제정퇴경환림보상표준,재선택퇴경지괴시응고필지괴적입지조건,피면의경지피퇴。
A reasonable payment motivates peasants to participate in the Grain to Green Project (GTGP) voluntarily. However, the current payment scheme requires improvement as it lacks the consideration of the dynamic changes and the uncertainty of the peasants’ opportunity cost. In this paper, we estimated the peasants’ income by employing the real option theory. The conversion boundaries of land use in southern and northern regions of China are calculated by considering the uncertainty in agricultural return. The results indicate that the farmer’ s opportunity cost varies with region and time. An efficient payment scheme should adapt to the changing opportunity cost. Thereafter, by choosing wheat and grain as the representative crop for the southern and northern China respectively, the farmer’s opportunity cost is estimated through the historical data from 2002 to 2013. The net income of afforestation in southern and northern is estimated by choosing cedar wood and locust as the representative with the intimal density given by the government regulation for GTGP. The fluctuating increase in pattern of the net income of agriculture is clear in the results. Moreover, the results show that in the period of 2002-2009, the payment from GTGP is higher than agriculture whereas, the income from agriculture is higher in the period of 2010-2013. Finally, we assume the farmer’s opportunity cost from 2014 to 2030 follows a geometric Brownian motion. Comparing the obtained opportunity cost to the conversion boundary, a statistic measure is formulated. The results indicate that the probability of the farmer suffering lost increases as the crop yield increases, and decreases with growing payment. Moreover, there is a higher chance for the farmer in southern China suffering lost under the same crop yield and payment standard. This work lay down theoretical foundation for the next round GTGP . As the central government has set a unified payment despite the difference in region and time, our results suggest that local authorities should supplement the payment to compensate the opportunity cost changes regarding region and time difference. To avoid rich land being converted, local authorities should take the land quality into consideration when choosing which land should be included in GTGP .