CAJ | 학술논문

本文选择40个主要国家和地区的经济数据建立门限面板模型，考察两次金融危机对宏观经济的影响，分析不同金融发展水平时外汇储备对出口、投资、消费和总产出的宏观经济效应。研究结果表明：金融危机对出口具有促进作用，对投资、消费和总产出具有消极影响；金融发展水平较低时，外汇储备对出口、消费和总产出具有积极影响；金融水平取得一定发展时，外汇储备对出口和投资具有消极影响，对消费具有积极影响；金融高度发展时，外汇储备对出口和消费具有积极影响，对总产出具有消极影响。
본문선택40개주요국가화지구적경제수거건립문한면판모형，고찰량차금융위궤대굉관경제적영향，분석불동금융발전수평시외회저비대출구、투자、소비화총산출적굉관경제효응。연구결과표명：금융위궤대출구구유촉진작용，대투자、소비화총산출구유소겁영향；금융발전수평교저시，외회저비대출구、소비화총산출구유적겁영향；금융수평취득일정발전시，외회저비대출구화투자구유소겁영향，대소비구유적겁영향；금융고도발전시，외회저비대출구화소비구유적겁영향，대총산출구유소겁영향。
This paper chooses the economic data of 40 major countries and regions to establish threshold panel model to analyze the impact of both the financial crisis on macroeconomic and study the macroeconomic effects on exports, invest-ment, consumption and the total output by reserves in the different levels of financial development. The results show that the financial crisis has a role in promoting exports, but has a negative impact on investment, consumption and total out-put. At lower levels of financial development, foreign exchange reserves have positive impact on exports, consumption and the total output;when financial development attains a certain level, the foreign exchange reserves have a negative impact on exports and investment, and have a positive impact on consumption;when the financial development level at-tains a certain height, foreign exchange reserves have a positive impact on exports and consumption, and have a negative impact on total output.