CAJ | 학술논문

为利用多项式回归分析来探讨飓风的空间效应与泥沙沉积作用的关系,并对模型进行筛选及评价,为预测飓风的严重程度提供科学依据。泥沙沉积的数据收集于美国路易斯安那州发生卡崔娜、利塔和古斯塔夫飓风后,定义数据资料中风暴中心到取样地点地图上的距离为风暴路径(Track,km),将取样点到海岸线的垂直距离定义为海岸线距离(Coast,km)。反应变量为泥沙沉积的深度(Depth,cm)。结果显示,泥沙沉积的深度与 Track 以及 Coast 有显著的回归关系(P <0.001),泥沙沉积位置到海岸线距离(Coast)对泥沙沉积深度有明显的衰减的效应。可见多项式回归对于飓风的空间效应引发的泥沙沉积有较好的预测效果,为预测飓风强度提供一定的方法学参考。
위이용다항식회귀분석래탐토구풍적공간효응여니사침적작용적관계,병대모형진행사선급평개,위예측구풍적엄중정도제공과학의거。니사침적적수거수집우미국로역사안나주발생잡최나、리탑화고사탑부구풍후,정의수거자료중풍폭중심도취양지점지도상적거리위풍폭로경(Track,km),장취양점도해안선적수직거리정의위해안선거리(Coast,km)。반응변량위니사침적적심도(Depth,cm)。결과현시,니사침적적심도여 Track 이급 Coast 유현저적회귀관계(P <0.001),니사침적위치도해안선거리(Coast)대니사침적심도유명현적쇠감적효응。가견다항식회귀대우구풍적공간효응인발적니사침적유교호적예측효과,위예측구풍강도제공일정적방법학삼고。
The objective of this study was finding a predicted model to investigate the relationship among sediment deposition,hurricane storm track distance,and coast distance from Louisiana hurricanes’data.In this study,we defined storm track distance and coast distance as our explanatory variables.All data were collected from the field after hurricanes immediately.Depth of sediment was defined as response variable, and the polynomial regression was used to obtain the predicted model.The model was started with a second-order polynomial regression model with two predictor variables.Then,high order items were added in the regression model.Results showed that hurricane track distance and coast distance affected the sediment dep-osition significantly (P <0.001 ).Polynomial model can be employed for predicting the intensity of hurri-canes.