CAJ | 학술논문

全球水资源供需矛盾的加剧导致不同国家在国际河流水资源使用问题上的矛盾冲增。目前解决争端的最有效的途径对水资源进行合理的分配。然而在水资源分配过程中，不可避免的对部分地国家分配过量的水，对部分国家分配过少的水，因此容易在水量分配上产生冲突。通过建立动态演化博弈模型分析各国对水量分配的演化和稳定策略，得到相关结论：水量相对较少国家将采用强烈抗议或冲突的形式获取更多的水量，而水量相对较多国家为了能共同开发国际河流水资源，会逐渐同意放弃多余水量。分析结果表明，利用演化稳定策略调整各国家之间的分水量，可以有效地化解流域国家间的冲突。
전구수자원공수모순적가극도치불동국가재국제하류수자원사용문제상적모순충증。목전해결쟁단적최유효적도경대수자원진행합리적분배。연이재수자원분배과정중，불가피면적대부분지국가분배과량적수，대부분국가분배과소적수，인차용역재수량분배상산생충돌。통과건립동태연화박혁모형분석각국대수량분배적연화화은정책략，득도상관결론：수량상대교소국가장채용강렬항의혹충돌적형식획취경다적수량，이수량상대교다국가위료능공동개발국제하류수자원，회축점동의방기다여수량。분석결과표명，이용연화은정책략조정각국가지간적분수량，가이유효지화해류역국가간적충돌。
The conflicts on different countries in international river water use are increasing impulse under the intensification of the global water supply and demand .Currently ,the most effective way to solve the problem is to allocate water resources .However ,in the water allocation process ,it is inevitable to allocate excess water or too little water to some countries ,which is easily to generate conflicts between countries .By establishing an evolutionary game model to analyze the replicator dynamics and evolutionary stable strategy of the countries ,the main conclusion is obtained :the game system's EES is that the countries with too little water will select outbreak conflicts to get more water ,and the countries with excessive water will agree to give up water .The results show that the evolutionary stable strategy of adjusting the amount of water between countries can effectively resolve conflicts between basin countries .