CAJ | 학술논문

基于转型时期中国政府主导型经济的现实，采用中国1981———2013年居民消费支出、政府消费支出、政府投资支出、政府保障支出、城乡收入差异、金融发展程度等数据，建立VAR模型，从理论和实证角度剖析了居民消费受到政府支出结构的影响幅度。实证检验发现，政府消费支出、政府保障支出对居民消费具有引致效应，政府投资支出在一定的时滞后对居民消费具有挤出效应。本文认为，政府财政政策虽然能在一定程度上调控居民消费，但居民消费不能依赖政府刺激，政府资本性质的支出应退出一般竞争性和经营性领域，仅发挥公共支出的乘数效应和正外部性，努力促进居民消费持续增长的内生机制的形成。
기우전형시기중국정부주도형경제적현실，채용중국1981———2013년거민소비지출、정부소비지출、정부투자지출、정부보장지출、성향수입차이、금융발전정도등수거，건립VAR모형，종이론화실증각도부석료거민소비수도정부지출결구적영향폭도。실증검험발현，정부소비지출、정부보장지출대거민소비구유인치효응，정부투자지출재일정적시체후대거민소비구유제출효응。본문인위，정부재정정책수연능재일정정도상조공거민소비，단거민소비불능의뢰정부자격，정부자본성질적지출응퇴출일반경쟁성화경영성영역，부발휘공공지출적승수효응화정외부성，노력촉진거민소비지속증장적내생궤제적형성。
T his paper is based on the reality of guiding‐type of economy by the Chinese govern‐ment in the period of transition of the national economic development pattern .The VAR model is established by adopting such Chinese data as the resident consumption expenditure ,the govern‐ment expenditure ,the government investment expenditure ,the government guarantee expendi‐ture ,the income differences between the urban and the rural ,and the financial development de‐gree ,etc ,during the years from 1981 to 2013 .The influence magnitude of the resident consump‐tion subject to the government expenditure structure is analyzed from the theoretical and empiri‐cal angles .T he positive check has found that the government consumption expenditure and the government guarantee expenditure have had a cause effect upon the resident consumption and that the government investment expenditure has had a crowding‐out effect upon the resident consump‐tion after a time lag to a certain extent .This paper holds that although the government financial policy can regulate and control the resident consumption to a certain extent ,the resident consump‐tion cannot depend on the government stimulus ,the nature of capital expenditure by the govern‐ment should quit from the general competitive and operational fields and play the multiplier effect and positive externality effect so as to promote the formation of the endogenous mechanism of res‐ident consumption sustainable grow th .