CAJ | 학술논문

近年来，我国蔬菜类农产品“卖难”问题层出不穷，“微博叫卖”、“为农户找买家”现象此起彼伏，但治标不治本。对此，文章从造成农产品“卖难”问题的根源出发，通过运用BP神经网络预测模型对我国蔬菜供需量进行了预测，研究发现在蔬菜消费需求量只有微小变动的情况下，其实际供给量连续多年远高于理论供给量。为此，从合理预测供需、指导农业生产的角度提出了一些针对性的对策建议。
근년래，아국소채류농산품“매난”문제층출불궁，“미박규매”、“위농호조매가”현상차기피복，단치표불치본。대차，문장종조성농산품“매난”문제적근원출발，통과운용BP신경망락예측모형대아국소채공수량진행료예측，연구발현재소채소비수구량지유미소변동적정황하，기실제공급량련속다년원고우이론공급량。위차，종합리예측공수、지도농업생산적각도제출료일사침대성적대책건의。
In recent years,the“hard sell”problem of China’s vegetable produce have emerged in endlessly. The phenomenon of“Hawk”and“to find buyers for farmers”happens now and then,but it is just a temporary action instead of total solution. To this,from the root of the“hard sell”problem of agricultural products as the starting point,by using the BP neural network prediction model,the amount of supply and demand of vegetables in our country is predicted. It is found that in the situation with only minor changes in vegetable consumption demand, the actual supply is much higher than theory for many years. Therefore,some corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward from the perspective of a reasonable prediction of supply and demand,as well as a scientific guidance of the agricultural production.