CAJ | 학술논문

基于2011～2012年河蟹养殖生态、气象观测资料，对河蟹不同生长断面的体重、水温、蟹龄之间的相互关系进行分析，利用多元回归方法建立了河蟹平均体重预测模型。根据不同层次水温与气温的相关关系，建立了利用气温预测水温的模型。研究结果表明：（1）在相同管理措施下，水温是河蟹生长快慢的影响因子，河蟹生长最快的时期对应的平均水温为25～28℃，这也是河蟹进化过程中适应自然季节变化的结果；（2）4～8月份河蟹平均体重与水温相关性较好，采用回归方法，可构建河蟹不同生长期平均体重预测模型；对2012年的预测结果与实际观测资料对比分析表明，预测值与实测值较为接近；（3）前3日滑动平均气温与各层水温的线性相关关系最好，可利用该指标预测各层水温，进而预测河蟹不同生长期平均体重。
기우2011～2012년하해양식생태、기상관측자료，대하해불동생장단면적체중、수온、해령지간적상호관계진행분석，이용다원회귀방법건립료하해평균체중예측모형。근거불동층차수온여기온적상관관계，건립료이용기온예측수온적모형。연구결과표명：（1）재상동관리조시하，수온시하해생장쾌만적영향인자，하해생장최쾌적시기대응적평균수온위25～28℃，저야시하해진화과정중괄응자연계절변화적결과；（2）4～8월빈하해평균체중여수온상관성교호，채용회귀방법，가구건하해불동생장기평균체중예측모형；대2012년적예측결과여실제관측자료대비분석표명，예측치여실측치교위접근；（3）전3일활동평균기온여각층수온적선성상관관계최호，가이용해지표예측각층수온，진이예측하해불동생장기평균체중。
According to the ecological and meteorological observation data in crab breeding during 2011~2012 , the author ana-lyzed the mutual relations among crab’s body weight, water temperature, and crab’s age at different growth stages, and established the predictive model of crab ’ s average body weight by using multiple regression method .In addition, the predictive model of water temperature through air temperature was built based on the relationship between water temperature at various layers and air tempera -ture.The research results indicated that:(1) Under the same management measures , water temperature was a factor affecting the growth rate of crab .The crab grew fastest when the average water temperature was 25~28 ℃.( 2) There was a good correlation be-tween crab ’ s average body weight and water temperature from April to August .The predictive model of crab ’ s average body weight at various growth stages could be constructed by using regression method , and the predictive value obtained by this model was rela-tively close to the actual value in the year 2012.(3) The 3-day moving average air temperature was best correlated with the water temperature at various layers;this index could be used to predict the water temperature at various layers , and further forecast the av-erage body weight of crab at different growth stages .