CAJ | 학술논문

为解决风险指标体系在工程应用中存在的评估细节反映不足和风险信息不够充分的缺陷，文中提出了一种电网运行风险评估与定级体系。首先，在结构上将风险重新定义为等级、类别、概率、严重程度、原因集和后果集的集合，在类别上将风险分为减供负荷、重载或过载、电压偏移、电网解列、厂站全停和重要用户全停。其次，设计了各类风险发生概率等级、严重程度等级及风险综合等级的定级方法。最后，从信息采集、风险辨识、风险评估、风险定级和风险预警五个环节设计了体系流程，并对该体系的应用效果作了说明。
위해결풍험지표체계재공정응용중존재적평고세절반영불족화풍험신식불구충분적결함，문중제출료일충전망운행풍험평고여정급체계。수선，재결구상장풍험중신정의위등급、유별、개솔、엄중정도、원인집화후과집적집합，재유별상장풍험분위감공부하、중재혹과재、전압편이、전망해렬、엄참전정화중요용호전정。기차，설계료각류풍험발생개솔등급、엄중정도등급급풍험종합등급적정급방법。최후，종신식채집、풍험변식、풍험평고、풍험정급화풍험예경오개배절설계료체계류정，병대해체계적응용효과작료설명。
To solve engineering application defects such as lack of assessment details and risk information in the risk index system,this paper presents a power grid operation risk assessment and rating system.Firstly,redefine the risk structure as a set of risk grade,risk kind,risk probability,risk severity,reason set and consequence set,while classifying risk categories as loss of load,overload,voltage deviation,grid splitting,blackout of plant/station,and blackout of important users.Secondly, design the rating method of risk probability grade,risk severity grade and risk grade.Finally,divide the system flow into five parts as information collection,risk identification,risk assessment,risk rating and risk warning,and illustrate the system application effects in Dispatch and Control Center of State Grid Anhui Electric Power Company.