CAJ | 학술논문

根据水文现象相似特性建立的最近邻法，避免了对研究对象相依形式和概率分布形式做某种假定，是一类基于数据驱动的预测方法。影响该方法预测成果优劣的关键因素之一是特征矢量相似程度衡量指标的选取。为了在度量相似程度时兼顾“矢”和“量”的信息，在深入分析余弦距离与欧氏距离异同的基础上，尝试将二者耦合作为相似度的技术指标，建立了基于耦合相似指标的最近邻法，并将该方法应用到宜昌水文站和唐乃亥水文站预见期为一年的年径流预测，利用不同水文特性的年径流资料进行校验，结果表明：基于耦合指标的最近邻法，能较好地进行年径流的预测分析，是一种有效、可行的方法。
근거수문현상상사특성건립적최근린법，피면료대연구대상상의형식화개솔분포형식주모충가정，시일류기우수거구동적예측방법。영향해방법예측성과우렬적관건인소지일시특정시량상사정도형량지표적선취。위료재도량상사정도시겸고“시”화“량”적신식，재심입분석여현거리여구씨거리이동적기출상，상시장이자우합작위상사도적기술지표，건립료기우우합상사지표적최근린법，병장해방법응용도의창수문참화당내해수문참예견기위일년적년경류예측，이용불동수문특성적년경류자료진행교험，결과표명：기우우합지표적최근린법，능교호지진행년경류적예측분석，시일충유효、가행적방법。
The nearest neighbor method ( NNM) based on hydrological similarity is a data?driven prediction method, the use of which allows for avoiding making certain assumptions about the dependence and probability distribution forms of objects of study. One of the key factors that affect the quality of the predicted results using this method is the selection of the measure of the similarity in eigenvectors. In order to give consideration to the information about“direc?tion” and “quantity” while measuring similarity, this paper tries to couple Cosine distance and Euclidean distance to the technical indicator for similarity after thoroughly analyzing their differences and similarities. The nearest neighbor method based on coupled similarity indictor was used for the annual runoff prediction of Yichang hydrological station and Tangnaihai hydrological station, and the annual runoff data for different hydrological characteristics were used for checking. The results show that the nearest neighbor method based on the coupled indicator can appropriately predict annual runoff. It is an effective, feasible method.