CAJ | 학술논문

气候变化下的水资源脆弱性和适应性管理研究成为全球和国家应对气候变化和保障水资源安全重点关注的问题，也是中国可持续发展面对的重大战略问题。介绍了水资源脆弱性和适应性管理的国内外最新研究进展；针对国家重大需求和国际科学前沿问题，综述了气候变化下水资源脆弱性和适应性管理存在的问题与挑战。提出了气候变化下水资源脆弱性与适应性管理理论与方法研究以应对气候变化的无悔为准则，与社会经济可持续发展、成本效益分析、利益相关者的多信息源的分析与综合决策相结合为原则，对适应性管理与脆弱性组成的互联互动系统及其风险与不确定性进行分析的新认识。
기후변화하적수자원취약성화괄응성관리연구성위전구화국가응대기후변화화보장수자원안전중점관주적문제，야시중국가지속발전면대적중대전략문제。개소료수자원취약성화괄응성관리적국내외최신연구진전；침대국가중대수구화국제과학전연문제，종술료기후변화하수자원취약성화괄응성관리존재적문제여도전。제출료기후변화하수자원취약성여괄응성관리이론여방법연구이응대기후변화적무회위준칙，여사회경제가지속발전、성본효익분석、이익상관자적다신식원적분석여종합결책상결합위원칙，대괄응성관리여취약성조성적호련호동계통급기풍험여불학정성진행분석적신인식。
Assessment of water resources vulnerability and development of adaption measures under climate change are among the major strategic issues for sustainable development in China. This paper reviews progress in research in this field and recommends revisions in direction and emphasis. In general, research and policy?making has so far inad?equately dealt with uncertainties that exist in hydrological processes. Also, there has been a tendency for research on vulnerability assessment and adaption measures to be disjointed, while evidence suggests that water shortage that threatens social and economic development is often related to poor water management. Future research in this field would benefit by:Integration of vulnerability assessment and ecological needs with appropriate adaption measures;de?velopment of theory and models of how to respond quickly to hydrological, ecological and socio?economic change;quantifying and utilizing risk and uncertainty;adopting no regrets adaptation measures;undertaking cost?benefit anal?ysis of options with the goal of sustainable development;and greater stakeholder involvement in information provision and decision making.