CAJ | 학술논문

为了减少土石坝因洪水漫顶造成溃坝所带来的损失，详细介绍了计算土石坝洪水漫顶风险率的蒙特卡罗法模型，分析了影响土石坝洪水漫顶的主要因素为洪水、风浪、水库运行调度方式和水库特性。针对这些因素进行洪水漫顶风险率的敏感性分析，并以南方某土石坝为例进行了实例研究。结果表明：洪峰流量均值和变差系数以及最大风速的均值对土石坝洪水漫顶风险率的影响较大，洪峰流量的偏态系数和风速的均方差的影响较小；水库自身特性及洪水到来前的水库初始水位的影响也比较大。该实例计算得到的洪水漫顶风险率经与相关工程实例分析计算成果比较，表明采用蒙特卡罗法计算洪水漫顶风险率是可信的。
위료감소토석패인홍수만정조성궤패소대래적손실，상세개소료계산토석패홍수만정풍험솔적몽특잡라법모형，분석료영향토석패홍수만정적주요인소위홍수、풍랑、수고운행조도방식화수고특성。침대저사인소진행홍수만정풍험솔적민감성분석，병이남방모토석패위례진행료실례연구。결과표명：홍봉류량균치화변차계수이급최대풍속적균치대토석패홍수만정풍험솔적영향교대，홍봉류량적편태계수화풍속적균방차적영향교소；수고자신특성급홍수도래전적수고초시수위적영향야비교대。해실례계산득도적홍수만정풍험솔경여상관공정실례분석계산성과비교，표명채용몽특잡라법계산홍수만정풍험솔시가신적。
The detailed process to calculate risk probability of earth-rock dam overtopping caused by floods based on Monte-Carlo Method was presented in this paper.Factors affecting the risk probability,inclusive of flood,wind wave,reservoir scheduling and reservoir features were deeply analyzed and sensitivity analysis for these factors was conducted.An earth-rock dam in south China was taken for example.Results reveal that the mean value of peak flow,the coefficient of variation,as well as the mean value of maximum wind speed have large impact on the risk probability;whereas the coefficient of skewness and the mean wind speed variance have little effect.Besides,the reservoir characteristics and the initial water level before flood also have considerable influence on the risk probabil-ity.By comparing the calculated results with engineering analysis results,we conclude that it’s reliable to calculate the risk probability of earth-rock dam overtopping by using Monte-Carlo method.