CAJ | 학술논문

冰雹天气是武威市多发的灾害天气之一。利用1961—2010年武威市5个气象站冰雹资料，采用统计学方法分析武威市冰雹天气的时空分布特征及变化趋势；选取1991—2010年5—9月武威市逐日 NCEP 再分析资料，对冰雹天气进行诊断分析并进行短时临近预报。结果表明：武威市冰雹有明显的地域特征，南部天祝山区冰雹日数远多于其他地区，占武威市冰雹总日数的76.1％。武威市逐年代及年冰雹日数总体呈减少的趋势，6—8月是冰雹的高发期，冰雹日数占全年冰雹总日数的80.2％。冰雹的日变化明显，11—19时为冰雹多发时段，集中发生时段为13—16时，冰雹的平均持续时间为10 min。结合当地实际可知，影响武威市的冰雹云大部分是由天祝县境内生成发展或从青海省移动来的。依据气流的南北配置将发生冰雹的环流形势分为3大类，分别为西北气流型、西南气流型和西风气流型。采用相关系数、经验预报和最大靠近原则等诊断分析方法，确定各类型冰雹的预报指标和阈值。诊断模式为冰雹的预报预警提供了客观有效的指导产品。
빙박천기시무위시다발적재해천기지일。이용1961—2010년무위시5개기상참빙박자료，채용통계학방법분석무위시빙박천기적시공분포특정급변화추세；선취1991—2010년5—9월무위시축일 NCEP 재분석자료，대빙박천기진행진단분석병진행단시림근예보。결과표명：무위시빙박유명현적지역특정，남부천축산구빙박일수원다우기타지구，점무위시빙박총일수적76.1％。무위시축년대급년빙박일수총체정감소적추세，6—8월시빙박적고발기，빙박일수점전년빙박총일수적80.2％。빙박적일변화명현，11—19시위빙박다발시단，집중발생시단위13—16시，빙박적평균지속시간위10 min。결합당지실제가지，영향무위시적빙박운대부분시유천축현경내생성발전혹종청해성이동래적。의거기류적남북배치장발생빙박적배류형세분위3대류，분별위서북기류형、서남기류형화서풍기류형。채용상관계수、경험예보화최대고근원칙등진단분석방법，학정각류형빙박적예보지표화역치。진단모식위빙박적예보예경제공료객관유효적지도산품。
Hail is one of the most frequent disaster weather in Wuwei of Gansu province.Using hail data at five meteorological stations in Wuwei during 1961-2010,temporal and spatial distribution characteristics and changing trend of hail weather were analyzed by a statistical method.Besides,some diagnostic analyses and nowcasting of hail weather were made based on daily NCEP reanalysis data with the resolution of 1°×1°from May to September during 1991-2010.The results show that hail weather varies significantly in space,and a number of hail days are greater in mountain area of Tianzhu county than in other areas,accounting for 76.1 % of the total number of hail days in Wuwei.Annual and interdecadal hail days are in a deceasing tend.Most hails occur from June to August, which accounts for 80.2% of the total hail days.Daily variation of hail is obvious and most hails occur during 11:00 to 19:00,especially during 13:00 to 16:00,and mean duration of hail is about 10 minutes.According to the actual situation in the local area,most hail cloud impacting Wuwei generates and develops in Tianzhu county or moves from Qinghai province.Circulation patterns of hail weather are divided into three categories by north-south airflow configuration,namely,a northwest flow type,a southwest flow type and a westerly flow type.Forecast indi-ces and thresholds of different types′hails have been identified by diagnostic analysis methods including a correla-tion coefficient,an empirical prediction and a maximum proximity principle.This diagnostic mode can provide some objective and effective instruction products for hail forecasting and warning.