CAJ | 학술논문

利用2009—2012年北京市467例中暑病例与同期9个气象要素资料和当日及前期1—4 d 累积平均气象要素共45个气象因子，采用相关分析法分析北京地区夏季中暑发病人数与气象因子之间的关系。采用多元线性回归和非线性拟合方法构建了改进的北京地区中暑气象预报模型，选取拟合优度较好的模型对中暑人数进行回代及预测检验，并与现用模型进行对比。结果表明：气温是引发北京地区夏季中暑的决定性因子；气温、水汽压、气压及降水的两日累积效应均高于当日效应，表明气象要素的连续累积作用对人体中暑影响较大；建立的中暑预报模型具有较好的历史拟合及预测效果，中暑等级划分较合理，对北京市中暑气象等级预报服务和公众有效防范中暑有实际的指导意义。
이용2009—2012년북경시467례중서병례여동기9개기상요소자료화당일급전기1—4 d 루적평균기상요소공45개기상인자，채용상관분석법분석북경지구하계중서발병인수여기상인자지간적관계。채용다원선성회귀화비선성의합방법구건료개진적북경지구중서기상예보모형，선취의합우도교호적모형대중서인수진행회대급예측검험，병여현용모형진행대비。결과표명：기온시인발북경지구하계중서적결정성인자；기온、수기압、기압급강수적량일루적효응균고우당일효응，표명기상요소적련속루적작용대인체중서영향교대；건립적중서예보모형구유교호적역사의합급예측효과，중서등급화분교합리，대북경시중서기상등급예보복무화공음유효방범중서유실제적지도의의。
Based on 467 heatstroke cases,daily meteorological data and 1-4 days′accumulated meteorological ele-ments before heatstroke day from 2009 to 2012 in Beijing(sum 45 meteorological factors),relationships between heatstroke incidence and meteorological factors were analyzed by a correlation method.Improved forecast models of heatstroke were established by methods of a multiple linear regression and a nonlinear fitting,and the better model was selected to back substitution and verification for number of heatstroke patients.Also,this model was compared with the current used model.The results show that temperature is a dominant factor causing heatstroke in summer in Beijing.Cumulative effects of temperature,vapor pressure,air pressure and precipitation in two days have a greater impact on heatstroke.In addition,new models have better fitting and forecasting effect for heat-stroke,so is the grades of heatstroke.Thus,the models are of indicative to forecast heatstroke grades and prevent heatstroke.