CAJ | 학술논문

利用1958—2012年河北省21个基准站和基本站逐日降水观测资料，分析了河北省汛期暴雨的气候变化特征及年际、年代际和趋势变化特征。结果表明：河北省汛期暴雨分布呈东部和南部向西北部递减的特征。汛期最大暴雨量中心位于河北省东部、燕山南麓的唐山和秦皇岛地区。从年际和年代际尺度变化来看，河北省暴雨量、暴雨频次和暴雨强度均存在2—3 a的年际变化周期信号，暴雨量和暴雨频次在20世纪80年代后存在15—20 a 的年代际周期信号。汛期暴雨量和暴雨频次时间序列整体呈下降的趋势，特别是21世纪初，河北省汛期暴雨量和暴雨频次下降趋势更明显，近50 a 暴雨强度变化幅度较小。在空间分布上，暴雨量、暴雨频次和暴雨强度3个特征量在年代际变化中整体均呈东退南缩的特征。从趋势分析来看，大部分站点汛期暴雨量、暴雨频次和暴雨强度均呈下降趋势。
이용1958—2012년하북성21개기준참화기본참축일강수관측자료，분석료하북성신기폭우적기후변화특정급년제、년대제화추세변화특정。결과표명：하북성신기폭우분포정동부화남부향서북부체감적특정。신기최대폭우량중심위우하북성동부、연산남록적당산화진황도지구。종년제화년대제척도변화래간，하북성폭우량、폭우빈차화폭우강도균존재2—3 a적년제변화주기신호，폭우량화폭우빈차재20세기80년대후존재15—20 a 적년대제주기신호。신기폭우량화폭우빈차시간서렬정체정하강적추세，특별시21세기초，하북성신기폭우량화폭우빈차하강추세경명현，근50 a 폭우강도변화폭도교소。재공간분포상，폭우량、폭우빈차화폭우강도3개특정량재년대제변화중정체균정동퇴남축적특정。종추세분석래간，대부분참점신기폭우량、폭우빈차화폭우강도균정하강추세。
Using daily precipitation data at 21 weather stations in Hebei province from 1958 to 2012,climatic char-acteristics,annual and inter-decadal variations of heavy rain events and their trends during flood seasons were ana-lyzed.The results indicate that heavy rain events during flood season are higher in the east and south than in the northwest.The largest center of heavy rain is located in the east of Hebei province,Tangshan and Qinhuangdao re-gions.According to the analysis of the inter-annual and inter-decadal scale,rainfall,frequency and intensity of heavy rain have a 2-3-year cycle,and the first two have a 15-20-year cycle after 1980s.Rainfall and frequency of heavy rain during flood season are in a declining trend,especially after 21st century.However,change of heavy rain intensity is not significant.For spatial distribution of heavy rain,inter-decadal rainfall and frequency as well as intensity all decrease to east and to south,and three indexes are in a declining trend in the most weather stations.