CAJ | 학술논문

近年来，在全国耕地面积持续减少的背景下，西北干旱区耕地呈扩张趋势，现有研究关注其自然因素驱动力，对人文因素驱动力，特别是灌溉设施和方式、政策、经济利益和市场导向等因素关注较少。选取干旱区典型绿洲———且末绿洲，采用最大似然法和人机交互式分类相结合的方法从1972，1990，2001，2011年影像中提取耕地信息，结合统计学方法分析且末绿洲耕地变化的时空趋势、耕地复种指数的动态变化；在充分考虑人口因素的前提下，增加灌溉设施和方式、政策、经济利益和市场导向等因素，探讨了绿洲耕地扩张的人文驱动力。研究结果表明：1970年以来，且末绿洲耕地面积时增时减，总体呈增长趋势；耕地复种指数波动上升；人口增长、灌溉设施和方式、政策、经济利益和市场等因素在不同阶段以不同方式影响着该绿洲耕地面积的扩张。政策、经济利益和市场因素是近10年绿洲耕地迅速扩张的主要驱动因素。
근년래，재전국경지면적지속감소적배경하，서북간한구경지정확장추세，현유연구관주기자연인소구동력，대인문인소구동력，특별시관개설시화방식、정책、경제이익화시장도향등인소관주교소。선취간한구전형록주———차말록주，채용최대사연법화인궤교호식분류상결합적방법종1972，1990，2001，2011년영상중제취경지신식，결합통계학방법분석차말록주경지변화적시공추세、경지복충지수적동태변화；재충분고필인구인소적전제하，증가관개설시화방식、정책、경제이익화시장도향등인소，탐토료록주경지확장적인문구동력。연구결과표명：1970년이래，차말록주경지면적시증시감，총체정증장추세；경지복충지수파동상승；인구증장、관개설시화방식、정책、경제이익화시장등인소재불동계단이불동방식영향착해록주경지면적적확장。정책、경제이익화시장인소시근10년록주경지신속확장적주요구동인소。
In recent years , the cultivated land in most parts of Xinjiang showed expansion trend under the background of constant reduction of countrywide cultivated land .Takes the typical arid area oasis of Charchan riv-er, using maximum likelihood and man-machine interactive method extract information of cultivated land from the images of 1972, 1990, 2001, 2011 of study area, combining with statistical methods, analyzed the general trend of temporal and spatial variation of cultivated land in Charchan Oasis and the change of multiple-cropping index .The study no longer takes increasingly prominent contradiction between population , grain and cultivated land as a start-ing point,study the human driving forces of the expansion of cultivated land in smaller regional scale , with fully considering the demographic factors and adding other factors , such as irrigation facilities , irrigation methods , policy factors, economic benefits and market orientation .Results showed that since 1970, the area of cultivated land showed general growth trend , multiple-cropping index generally rised , and still had room to increase .Population growth , irrigation facilities and methods , policies , economic benefits and market affected the expansion of cultivat-ed land in different way and time stages .And the main driving forces which were responsible for the rapid expan-sion of cultivated land in recent 10 years were policies , economic benefits and market .