CAJ | 학술논문

基于网络自相关理论与建模方法，利用全国第六次人口普查省际人口迁移数据和相关资料，分析了迁移流之间存在的几种网络空间依赖形式，据此构建空间OD模型，并对2005—2010年中国省际人口迁移的空间模式及其动力机制进行初步分析．结果表明，中国省际人口迁移流之间存在显著的空间依赖关系；分别选择网络权重矩阵Wo ，Wd和W w ，利用M o ran's I对网络自相关程度进行测度，结果为0.5025，0.2867和0.1078，且均在1‰水平上显著，说明抵达相同目的地（D ）的人口迁移流的迁出地之间存在空间集聚现象；由同一迁出地（O ）出发的迁移流的目的地之间也存在空间集聚现象；目的地和迁出地均相邻的人口迁移流之间也存在相互影响与制约．几种不同空间OD模型的拟合度均优于重力模型，其中迁出地的网络自相关效应更为显著，表明迁出地在地域空间上更为集中，抵达同一目的地的人口迁移流之间的相互作用更强．同时考虑3种不同网络自相关效应的空间OD模型更优，拟合度更好，该模型可以更加准确全面地揭示经济、就业、人口和距离等因素对人口迁移的影响作用．
기우망락자상관이론여건모방법，이용전국제륙차인구보사성제인구천이수거화상관자료，분석료천이류지간존재적궤충망락공간의뢰형식，거차구건공간OD모형，병대2005—2010년중국성제인구천이적공간모식급기동력궤제진행초보분석．결과표명，중국성제인구천이류지간존재현저적공간의뢰관계；분별선택망락권중구진Wo ，Wd화W w ，이용M o ran's I대망락자상관정도진행측도，결과위0.5025，0.2867화0.1078，차균재1‰수평상현저，설명저체상동목적지（D ）적인구천이류적천출지지간존재공간집취현상；유동일천출지（O ）출발적천이류적목적지지간야존재공간집취현상；목적지화천출지균상린적인구천이류지간야존재상호영향여제약．궤충불동공간OD모형적의합도균우우중력모형，기중천출지적망락자상관효응경위현저，표명천출지재지역공간상경위집중，저체동일목적지적인구천이류지간적상호작용경강．동시고필3충불동망락자상관효응적공간OD모형경우，의합도경호，해모형가이경가준학전면지게시경제、취업、인구화거리등인소대인구천이적영향작용．
Based on the network autocorrelation theories and modeling methods , this paper analyzes the existence of network autocorrelation structures and spatial mechanisms among Chinese inter‐provincial migration flows from the sixth national census in the context of spatial OD models . Results indicate that there is a significant spatial dependence among inter‐provincial migration flows in China .Moran's I is used to investigate the network autocorrelation ,the values of Moran's I with the corresponding Wo ,Wd and Ww are 0.502 5 ,0.286 7 and 0.107 8 . It show s that the origins of migration flow s arrived at the same destination(D) ,are spatially agglomerated ,and so are the destinations of migration flows departed from the same origin(O) .In addition ,population migration flows that have the same origins and destinations are mutually dependent . The goodness‐of‐fit of all the spatial OD models are much better than gravity model ,and there is a significant network autocorrelation between migration flows . In comparison with several different forms of spatial OD model , it is confirmed that the network structural effects of the origins are the most significant , this indicates the origins are more concentrated across the space ;When simultaneously considering three different network structures , the variables' influences vary to some degree accordingly . Therefore , taking full account of three different forms of spatial lag will comprehensively reveal the spatial mechanism of migration flows .