CAJ | 학술논문

针对工程建设效果后评价中具有很多确定性和不确定性因素，且评价因子与等级标准间存在着复杂的非线性关系这一大难题，该文将集对分析理论和博弈论相结合，提出基于博弈论的集对分析模型。该模型运用博弈论确定指标权重，然后将指标实际值和等级标准值构成一个集对，根据集对分析方法计算其综合联系度，据此判断评价对象的等级及其在等级间的转化趋势。之后引入集对的同势、反势、均势分析系统内部各子系统之间的协调程度进而解释转化趋势的内在原因。最后将模型运用于湖南省农村饮水安全工程建设效果后评价中，并与突变评价法相比较。结果显示：湖南省14个市（州）中有3个地区（衡阳、郴州、永州）农村饮水安全级别为“优”，3个地区（常德、益阳、娄底）农村饮水安全级别为“一般”，其他地区农村饮水安全均“良好”；长沙和怀化农村饮水安全系统协调性很强，工程可持续发展水平高；娄底农村饮水安全系统协调性一般，工程可持续发展水平不高；株洲农村饮水安全系统极不协调，工程可持续发展状况不容乐观；衡阳和郴州农村饮水安全系统基本不协调，工程可持续发展状况较差；其他市农村饮水安全系统基本协调，工程后续效益较为稳定。方法对比表明该文方法的研究结果可靠度更高，反映出的信息更全面、合理。该研究可为类似或后续工程管理提供决策参考。
침대공정건설효과후평개중구유흔다학정성화불학정성인소，차평개인자여등급표준간존재착복잡적비선성관계저일대난제，해문장집대분석이론화박혁론상결합，제출기우박혁론적집대분석모형。해모형운용박혁론학정지표권중，연후장지표실제치화등급표준치구성일개집대，근거집대분석방법계산기종합련계도，거차판단평개대상적등급급기재등급간적전화추세。지후인입집대적동세、반세、균세분석계통내부각자계통지간적협조정도진이해석전화추세적내재원인。최후장모형운용우호남성농촌음수안전공정건설효과후평개중，병여돌변평개법상비교。결과현시：호남성14개시（주）중유3개지구（형양、침주、영주）농촌음수안전급별위“우”，3개지구（상덕、익양、루저）농촌음수안전급별위“일반”，기타지구농촌음수안전균“량호”；장사화부화농촌음수안전계통협조성흔강，공정가지속발전수평고；루저농촌음수안전계통협조성일반，공정가지속발전수평불고；주주농촌음수안전계통겁불협조，공정가지속발전상황불용악관；형양화침주농촌음수안전계통기본불협조，공정가지속발전상황교차；기타시농촌음수안전계통기본협조，공정후속효익교위은정。방법대비표명해문방법적연구결과가고도경고，반영출적신식경전면、합리。해연구가위유사혹후속공정관리제공결책삼고。
Scientific and reasonable evaluation of project construction effectiveness plays an important role in the follow-up project management. However, the post-assessment of project construction effectiveness is a multi-complex system involved in many certain and uncertain factors, with complicated nonlinear relationship between evaluation indicators and grade standards, which should be considered in post-assessment. In this study, a set pair analysis model based on game theory was developed. In the model, the weights of evaluation indicators were obtained by game theory, and then the connection degree of the single index was calculated in the support of certain and uncertain analysis method of set pair theory. Then, the comprehensive connection degree of the object was obtained based on the model. So the evaluation grades and the transformation trend between grades of objects were confirmed. Based on the above analysis, the set pair situation was introduced to analyze the coordination among the subsystems, clarify the underlying causes of transformation trend and evaluate the sustainable development level of the project. The model was applied to the post-assessment of the rural drinking water safety project construction effectiveness of Hunan Province, and the results were compared with that from sudden change evaluation method. The results showed: 1) Project completion rate, qualification rate of project, water fee profit, completion rate of resolving rural drinking water difficulty, rural tap-water benefit rate, water quality and water environment protection of water functional zone were the main factors affecting rural drinking water safety in Hunan; Among these factors, water fee profit, rural tap-water benefit rate, water quality and water environment protection of water functional zone were key limiting factors of the project benefits; 2) Three areas (Hengyang, Chenzhou and Yongzhou) had “excellent” rural drinking water safety level, while Changde, Yiyang and Loudi had “general level”, and the others in “well” level; 3) The five indexes in project management subsystem were at levelⅠor levelⅡin all the areas, indicating that the governors of Hunan Province have paid much attention to the management of the people's livelihood project in recent years; However, the level of the indicators in socioeconomic performance subsystem and ecologic environment response subsystem were generally poor and the protection of ecological environment haven’t been done well; 4) The three subsystems of the rural drinking water safety system in Changsha and Huaihua were in strong coordination state, so the project was in a high sustainable development level; The coordination level of the three subsystems in Loudi was general, thus the sustainable development level was not high; The three subsystems in Zhuzhou was out of coordination, indicating worrying sustainable development; The coordination degree of the subsystems in Hengyang and Chenzhou was almost uncoordinated, making the project sustainable development condition poor; The subsystems were in harmony in other cities, so the follow-up benefit of the projects were relatively stable. The results above illustrated that the proposed method are reliable, can reflect more comprehensive information than the sudden change evaluation method. Therefore, the study can provide a reliable method for the decision-making and management of the similar projects or follow-up projects.