CAJ | 학술논문

推动营改增是建立规范的消费型增值税制度的必然要求，扩围对行业税负和产业发展产生的影响值得研究。文章构建了分税种对产业影响的VAR模型，通过脉冲响应函数和方差分解的分析得出，增值税和营业税对二、三产的长期影响存在差异。其中，增值税对两个产业的影响都为正，贡献率在60%左右；营业税对第二产业影响为正，对第三产业却为负效应，并且贡献率都很微弱。最后，围绕营改增进程中出现的问题，从产业结构优化视角提出了深化营改增的路径选择。
추동영개증시건립규범적소비형증치세제도적필연요구，확위대행업세부화산업발전산생적영향치득연구。문장구건료분세충대산업영향적VAR모형，통과맥충향응함수화방차분해적분석득출，증치세화영업세대이、삼산적장기영향존재차이。기중，증치세대량개산업적영향도위정，공헌솔재60%좌우；영업세대제이산업영향위정，대제삼산업각위부효응，병차공헌솔도흔미약。최후，위요영개증진정중출현적문제，종산업결구우화시각제출료심화영개증적로경선택。
Push the business tax change into V AT is the necessary request to establish the normative consumption-based value added taxation,and it also has an important impact on the industrial tax burden and development.This paper constructs VAR modals of both taxes' influence on the industry,and through impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis,we find that there exists some differences between the long term impact on the second and teriary industry.The VAT is positive to both industries which its contri-bution rate is around 60%;the business tax also has a positive effect on the second industry,while has an negative effects on the third in-dustry,and whatever to either industry,its contribution is very weak.Finally,around the problems raised in the process,we put forward the path selection to deepen reform from the perspective of industrial structure optimization.