CAJ | 학술논문

应用大连本站2003—2012年冬季降水过程的地面与探空资料，提出将判断降水相态的因子分别取其过程最大值和过程最小值并归为最大类与最小类，对降水过程动态地进行研究分析。在探讨各个因子对大连本站冬季降水相态影响的过程中，应用多层平均气温的方法来进行相态研究，并与单层气温和气层厚度的方法进行了对比，综合各项因子评价结果发现：平均气温类别的因子对降水相态的区分效果要好于其他类别的因子。规定等压面平均气温，不但表现优秀而且容易计算，非常适合应用于实际预报工作。设计“逐步排除法”，利用2013年大连本站的地面和探空数据对大连冬季降水进行检验，以及使用2013年日本全球数值预报模式格点资料进行模拟预报，均取得了理想的结果。
응용대련본참2003—2012년동계강수과정적지면여탐공자료，제출장판단강수상태적인자분별취기과정최대치화과정최소치병귀위최대류여최소류，대강수과정동태지진행연구분석。재탐토각개인자대대련본참동계강수상태영향적과정중，응용다층평균기온적방법래진행상태연구，병여단층기온화기층후도적방법진행료대비，종합각항인자평개결과발현：평균기온유별적인자대강수상태적구분효과요호우기타유별적인자。규정등압면평균기온，불단표현우수이차용역계산，비상괄합응용우실제예보공작。설계“축보배제법”，이용2013년대련본참적지면화탐공수거대대련동계강수진행검험，이급사용2013년일본전구수치예보모식격점자료진행모의예보，균취득료이상적결과。
Using the surface and air sounding observation data of winter precipitation in Dalian from 2003 to 2012,we obtained the maximum and minimum factors which were used to judge the precipitation types and classified as “MAX class”and “MIN class”to analyse and discuss the precipitation process dynamically. During the process of discussing the factors which affect the precipitation types in winter of Dalian,the method of the mean temperature of layers was used to research the precipitation types.Comparing it with the method before,which use the temperature of single layer or the thickness of layer,we considered the evaluation results of all factors,and found using the factors which belong to the category of mean tempera-ture are better than the factors of other categories.The mean temperature of the conventional isobaric sur-faces is easy to compute,suitable for the operation of weather forecasting.In addition,we also designed a“step-expel method”and use it to validate the winter precipitation types in Dalian 2013,on the basis of the surface and air sounding data of Dalian,and have obtained ideal results.Then we used the GSM grid data of Japanese mathematical forecast in 2013 to simulate the weather prediction,getting good results.