CAJ | 학술논문

为了深入探寻甘肃省参考作物蒸散量（reference crop evapotranspiration，ET0）的时空分异特性，利用甘肃省29个气象测站1951－2013年的观测资料，采用Penman-Monteith公式计算参考作物蒸散量。依靠处理定性概念与定量描述不确定转换的云模型，研究了ET0时空分布的均匀性和稳定性，并对ET0在月、季、年及空间上的变化特性进行了分析。结果表明：甘肃省ET0年际变化呈现逐年波动式的上升趋势，整个区域的ET0以2.11 mm/(10a)的倾向率增长；年内ET0逐月变化表现为单峰型，11月到次年3月分布较为均匀、稳定，4月到8月较为离散、不稳定。甘肃省ET0四季分布差异明显，夏季最大、春季次之、秋冬季最小；秋、冬季 ET0分布较春、夏季更为均匀；春、冬季稳定性好于夏、秋季。甘肃省 ET0在空间上总体呈西北地区大于东南地区的分布态势。与时间分布相比较，空间分布上较为离散、不均匀，而且也不稳定，总体上近33 a的不均匀性小于前30 a，稳定性也有逐渐增强的趋势。
위료심입탐심감숙성삼고작물증산량（reference crop evapotranspiration，ET0）적시공분이특성，이용감숙성29개기상측참1951－2013년적관측자료，채용Penman-Monteith공식계산삼고작물증산량。의고처리정성개념여정량묘술불학정전환적운모형，연구료ET0시공분포적균균성화은정성，병대ET0재월、계、년급공간상적변화특성진행료분석。결과표명：감숙성ET0년제변화정현축년파동식적상승추세，정개구역적ET0이2.11 mm/(10a)적경향솔증장；년내ET0축월변화표현위단봉형，11월도차년3월분포교위균균、은정，4월도8월교위리산、불은정。감숙성ET0사계분포차이명현，하계최대、춘계차지、추동계최소；추、동계 ET0분포교춘、하계경위균균；춘、동계은정성호우하、추계。감숙성 ET0재공간상총체정서북지구대우동남지구적분포태세。여시간분포상비교，공간분포상교위리산、불균균，이차야불은정，총체상근33 a적불균균성소우전30 a，은정성야유축점증강적추세。
Characteristics of temporal-spatial potential evapotranspiration (ET0) distribution in Gansu Province were studied based on the Cloud model, which is a mathematical representation of qualitative concepts including expected value Ex, entropy En and hyper entropy He, integrates the fuzziness and randomness of qualitative concept in a unified way, and is a new method for the transformation between the qualitative and the quantitative. The values of ET0 were calculated by Penman-Monteith. The changes of ET0 in time were analyzed at monthly, seasonal and yearly intervals, respectively, and spatial changes were mainly divided into 4 parts: Hexi area, the middle, east and south area of Gansu. All data of 63 years (1951-2013) were collected at 29 meteorological stations involving the above districts in Gansu. All ET0 data were achieved by the soft Interactive data language. The indices of homogeneity and stability were used for reflecting characteristics of temporal-spatial distribution of ET0, which were achieved by Cloud mode, solving the uncertain conversion of qualitative concept and quantitative description. And the changes of ET0 in time (monthly, seaonal and annual) and space were analyzed by the linear change and the contour image. The results showed annual variation in ET0 had a fluctuation and increasing tendency, and the tendency rate was 2.11 mm/(10a) in all study area (P<0.05). The monthly change curve of ET0 for 63 years was single apex type, which was:ET0 in June and July was higher than that in other months. In homogeneity and stability aspects of ET0, from November to March of the next year was better than from April to August in the same year. At the same time, there was significant difference on the distribution of ET0 among seasons, and the maximum was summer, followed by spring, and the least was autumn and winter. The further analysis found that both homogeneity and stability of temporal-spatial distribution of ET0 had no consistency among seasons. The homogeneity of ET0 in autumn and winter was higher than that in spring and summer, but the stability in summer and autumn was better than that in spring and winter. Seen from the difference characteristics of the space, ET0 in the northwest area of Gansu Province were larger than that in the southeast, however, the annual changes of ET0 among areas were different for 63 years. Concretely speaking, the value of annual ET0 in Hexi area was keeping the highest from 1951 to 2013. Seeing the changes of ET0 in the space using the homogeneity and stability, we found ET0 of Hexi area was most discrete and instable, the east area of Gansu had the best homogeneity and stability, and the middle and south were between them. The homogeneity and stability of ET0 in the space was worse than that in the time. Generally, the homogeneity of the distribution of ET0 was increasing since 1981, namely, the homogeneity from 1981 to 2013 was better than that from 1951 to 1981, and at the same time, the stability was also increasing for 63 years.