CAJ | 학술논문

量化宽松的货币政策是指通过中央银行实行零利率或近似零利率政策后，增加基础货币的供给，向市场注入大量流动性资金的干预方式，使金融市场的环境更宽松，在经济衰退萎靡时期，是各国复苏经济与重振产业的主要手段。2007年开始的次贷危机给世界经济蒙上了萧条的阴影，许多大国为化解萧条的局面纷纷采取了量化宽松的货币政策。面对经济下行压力，经济增加速度放缓，中国为应对外部需求疲软、内部消费萎靡和产能过剩等危机，从2014年11月中国人民银行发出了降息的信号后开始加入量化货币政策。这种量化宽松的货币政策对中国经济规模最大，GDP增长贡献最多的房地产市场是否效果明显一直饱受争议。本文基于Z市1998年-2012年的相关数据构建了实证模型进行检验，采用逐步回归法对具体影响因素进行筛选分析，结果显示，城市房价受利率等金融货币政策的影响并不显著，相反住宅投资额与第二产业的发展推动了房价的上涨，具体表现为房地产规模的扩大及实体经济的强化。因此，单纯依靠金融政策救市的思路需要转变，通过发展实体经济、加速产业结构优化与升级、提振产业层次、实施稳健的货币政策等手段来挽救房地产市场更有效。
양화관송적화폐정책시지통과중앙은행실행령리솔혹근사령리솔정책후，증가기출화폐적공급，향시장주입대량류동성자금적간예방식，사금융시장적배경경관송，재경제쇠퇴위미시기，시각국복소경제여중진산업적주요수단。2007년개시적차대위궤급세계경제몽상료소조적음영，허다대국위화해소조적국면분분채취료양화관송적화폐정책。면대경제하행압력，경제증가속도방완，중국위응대외부수구피연、내부소비위미화산능과잉등위궤，종2014년11월중국인민은행발출료강식적신호후개시가입양화화폐정책。저충양화관송적화폐정책대중국경제규모최대，GDP증장공헌최다적방지산시장시부효과명현일직포수쟁의。본문기우Z시1998년-2012년적상관수거구건료실증모형진행검험，채용축보회귀법대구체영향인소진행사선분석，결과현시，성시방개수리솔등금융화폐정책적영향병불현저，상반주택투자액여제이산업적발전추동료방개적상창，구체표현위방지산규모적확대급실체경제적강화。인차，단순의고금융정책구시적사로수요전변，통과발전실체경제、가속산업결구우화여승급、제진산업층차、실시은건적화폐정책등수단래만구방지산시장경유효。
Quantitative easing monetary policy refers to the central bank implements zero or near zero interest rate policy to increase the supply of base money and injects massive liquidity into the market so that the financial market environment is more relaxed. In the period of economic recession, it is a major means of national economic recovery and reviving the industry. The Subprime Crisis started in 2007 puts a depression shadow to the world economy. Many powerful countries in the world have adopted the quantitative easing monetary policy to defuse the depression situation. In the face of economic downward pressure and economic growth speed slowing down, China began to implement this policy starting from Nov. 2014 when interest rate was decreased to respond to weak external consumption, internal consumption malaise and overcapacity crisis. Whether the quantitative easing monetary policy has an obvious effect on the real estate industry that has the largest contribution to GDP growth in Chinese economy is controversial. Based on the relative data of Z city during 1998-2012, this paper builds an empirical model to test and adopts stepwise regression method to filter and analyze the concrete influence factor. The results show that the interest rate and other monetary policies'effects on urban housing prices are not significant;instead, the residential investment and the development of the second industry promote the rising of housing price, which is reflected in the expansion of real estate scale and the strengthening of the real economy. Therefore, the financial policy rescuing idea needs to be changed. The way of developing the real economy, speeding up the industrial structure optimization and upgrading, and boosting the level of industry, and implementing the prudent monetary policy is more effective for rescuing the real estate industry.