CAJ | 학술논문

中国的低生育率现状对未来经济和社会发展将产生负面的影响。在与其他国家和地区比较的基础上，认为中国的生育意愿处于极低的水平并简要分析了背后的原因。提出中国未来生育率的三重下行压力和导致生育率难以回升的三个恶性循环链条。最后比较了东亚各国和地区以及伊朗的人口形势变化、人口政策的改变轨迹和目前的鼓励措施。在此基础上，认为中国未来提升生育率，维持人口可持续发展的任务将极其艰巨。
중국적저생육솔현상대미래경제화사회발전장산생부면적영향。재여기타국가화지구비교적기출상，인위중국적생육의원처우겁저적수평병간요분석료배후적원인。제출중국미래생육솔적삼중하행압력화도치생육솔난이회승적삼개악성순배련조。최후비교료동아각국화지구이급이랑적인구형세변화、인구정책적개변궤적화목전적고려조시。재차기출상，인위중국미래제승생육솔，유지인구가지속발전적임무장겁기간거。
China's low fertility now will bring about a negative impact to the future economic and social development. In comparison with other countries and regions, the paper points out that the willingness to give birth in China is very low now, whose causes are briefly studied in the paper. It then analyses three downward pressures on the nation's future fertility and three vicious?circle chains leading to diffi-culties of fertility rise. Finally it compares countries and regions in East Asia and Iran, referring to the change of their population situation, the roadmaps of their population policy and present incentive measures. On this basis, it concludes that China will face extremely difficult tasks to increase fertility rate in the future and to maintain the sustainable population development.