CAJ | 학술논문

一个国家最佳的生育率是保持在世代更替水平附近，这样有利于保持合理的人口结构，也符合十八届三中全会提出的“促进人口长期均衡发展”的目标。当今中国无论是生育率还是生育意愿都远低于更替水平。因此，中国应该适当鼓励生育以便把生育率提高到更替水平附近。世界上许多国家和地区的经验表明，当一个国家或地区的生育率过高时，政府要采取措施降低生育率，这是比较容易做到的。然而，当一个国家或地区的生育率过低时，政府要采取措施鼓励生育，却几乎没有什么效果。
일개국가최가적생육솔시보지재세대경체수평부근，저양유리우보지합리적인구결구，야부합십팔계삼중전회제출적“촉진인구장기균형발전”적목표。당금중국무론시생육솔환시생육의원도원저우경체수평。인차，중국응해괄당고려생육이편파생육솔제고도경체수평부근。세계상허다국가화지구적경험표명，당일개국가혹지구적생육솔과고시，정부요채취조시강저생육솔，저시비교용역주도적。연이，당일개국가혹지구적생육솔과저시，정부요채취조시고려생육，각궤호몰유십요효과。
A best fertility rate for a nation is to keep it near the generation replacement level, which helps to maintain a reasonable population structure, and also accords with the goal of The Third Plena-ry Session of the 18th, that is, "to promote long-term balanced population development", In today's China both fertility rate and birth willingness are far below the replacement level. Therefore, the nation should encourage fertility appropriately in order to increase the birth rate near the replacement level. The experience of many countries and regions in the world indicates that when a country or a region 's birth rate is high, the government should take measures to reduce fertility, which is somewhat easy to do. However, when the government tries to encourage birth because of a rather low fertility level, it can manage little effect.