CAJ | 학술논문

本文对五个国际预报机构的2013年西北太平洋热带气旋（TC）的预报精度进行评估，评估的预报参数包括热带气旋移动路径、强度和登陆位置。本文采用平均距离误差与Skill Score两种评估方法。研究结果表明：欧洲天气预报中心对于TC路径的预报效果最好。日本气象预报机构对于TC路径的预报效果其次，它较CMA路径预报模式有一定的优势。五种国际TC强度预报机构中，Skill Score值在24小时预报时的值最高，即为24h预报的准确度最好。
본문대오개국제예보궤구적2013년서북태평양열대기선（TC）적예보정도진행평고，평고적예보삼수포괄열대기선이동로경、강도화등륙위치。본문채용평균거리오차여Skill Score량충평고방법。연구결과표명：구주천기예보중심대우TC로경적예보효과최호。일본기상예보궤구대우TC로경적예보효과기차，타교CMA로경예보모식유일정적우세。오충국제TC강도예보궤구중，Skill Score치재24소시예보시적치최고，즉위24h예보적준학도최호。
According to data from five international forecast organizations, the precision estimation of tropical cyclone of Northwest Pacific in 2013 were developed, the parameters include path forecast, intensity forecast and landing location forecast, both average distant error and skill score are used. The study results show that European Weather Forecast Center have made the best path forecast on tropical cyclone, and Japanese Weather Forecast Organization is second and it has advantage than CMA′s path forecast model. Among five International Tropical Cyclone Forecast organizations, the Skill Score method has the highest precision during 24 hours forecast.