人口与社会
人口與社會
인구여사회
Journal of Nanjing College for Population Programme Management
2015年
2期
3-9
,共7页
经济新常态%超低生育率%老龄化%人口压迫生产力%生育政策%鼓励生育%放开二孩政策
經濟新常態%超低生育率%老齡化%人口壓迫生產力%生育政策%鼓勵生育%放開二孩政策
경제신상태%초저생육솔%노령화%인구압박생산력%생육정책%고려생육%방개이해정책
new normal of economy%ultralow fertility rate%ageing%the population oppresses produc-tivity%birth policy%birth encouragement%relax the second child plicy
中国的人口经济关系已经发生重大变化。经济新常态同时伴随着“新矛盾”“新问题”和“潜在风险”，其中一个还没有引起足够关注的问题是来自人口方面的变化，包括劳动力短缺和老化、持续低生育率和快速老龄化。人力短缺问题已经逐渐上升为主导性的新人口问题。如果说“生产力压迫人口”的问题已经解决，那么“人口压迫生产力”的问题将日渐突出。中国目前面临的是“低生育率人口问题”，低生育率趋势不仅将长期化，而且将内卷化，卷入“低生育—老龄化”的恶性循环之中。提出全面鼓励二孩应该成为紧迫的国家选择。
中國的人口經濟關繫已經髮生重大變化。經濟新常態同時伴隨著“新矛盾”“新問題”和“潛在風險”，其中一箇還沒有引起足夠關註的問題是來自人口方麵的變化，包括勞動力短缺和老化、持續低生育率和快速老齡化。人力短缺問題已經逐漸上升為主導性的新人口問題。如果說“生產力壓迫人口”的問題已經解決，那麽“人口壓迫生產力”的問題將日漸突齣。中國目前麵臨的是“低生育率人口問題”，低生育率趨勢不僅將長期化，而且將內捲化，捲入“低生育—老齡化”的噁性循環之中。提齣全麵鼓勵二孩應該成為緊迫的國傢選擇。
중국적인구경제관계이경발생중대변화。경제신상태동시반수착“신모순”“신문제”화“잠재풍험”，기중일개환몰유인기족구관주적문제시래자인구방면적변화，포괄노동력단결화노화、지속저생육솔화쾌속노령화。인력단결문제이경축점상승위주도성적신인구문제。여과설“생산력압박인구”적문제이경해결，나요“인구압박생산력”적문제장일점돌출。중국목전면림적시“저생육솔인구문제”，저생육솔추세불부장장기화，이차장내권화，권입“저생육—노령화”적악성순배지중。제출전면고려이해응해성위긴박적국가선택。
Great changes have taken place in the relationship between China”s population and econo-my. the new normal of economy is accompanied by“new contradictions”, “new problems”, “potential risks”, and one problem which has not caused enough attention———the change of the population, in-cluding labor shortages and aging, continued lower fertility and rapid ageing. The manpower shortage has escalated into a dominant and new population problem. If we say that the problem of“productivity oppressing population” has been resolved, the problem of “population pressing productivity” will be-come more and more serious. What China is facing now is“low fertility trend”, which will not only be permanent, but also go into a vicious cycle of“low birth rate-aging”. So, the paper puts forward here that it is an urgent choice for the state to encourage comprehensively 2 children program.
