火力与指挥控制
火力與指揮控製
화력여지휘공제
FIRE CONTROL & COMMAND CONTROL
2015年
4期
76-80
,共5页
张仕新%昝翔%李浩%韩朝帅
張仕新%昝翔%李浩%韓朝帥
장사신%잠상%리호%한조수
状态预测%多阶段组合预测%油液分析
狀態預測%多階段組閤預測%油液分析
상태예측%다계단조합예측%유액분석
condition forecast%multi-stage combination forecasting%lubricating oil analysis
状态预测是状态维修的关键步骤之一。针对装备状态变化规律复杂、特点难易准确掌握的关键问题，以延时时间概念和两阶段预知模型为基础，提出了根据不同阶段特点采用不同预测方法的多阶段组合预测模型。通过油液分析及其相关规定，对装备运行阶段进行了具体划分，给出了适应各阶段特点的预测方法。最后，通过实例验证了该模型的有效性。
狀態預測是狀態維脩的關鍵步驟之一。針對裝備狀態變化規律複雜、特點難易準確掌握的關鍵問題，以延時時間概唸和兩階段預知模型為基礎，提齣瞭根據不同階段特點採用不同預測方法的多階段組閤預測模型。通過油液分析及其相關規定，對裝備運行階段進行瞭具體劃分，給齣瞭適應各階段特點的預測方法。最後，通過實例驗證瞭該模型的有效性。
상태예측시상태유수적관건보취지일。침대장비상태변화규률복잡、특점난역준학장악적관건문제，이연시시간개념화량계단예지모형위기출，제출료근거불동계단특점채용불동예측방법적다계단조합예측모형。통과유액분석급기상관규정，대장비운행계단진행료구체화분，급출료괄응각계단특점적예측방법。최후，통과실례험증료해모형적유효성。
Condition forecast is one of key steps in CBM (Condition based Maintenance). Aim to the key question of complicated rule of variation in equipment condition and uncertainty characteristic,rooted in the concept of Delay Time and two-stage forecasting model,multi-stage combination forecasting model based on different characteristics of different stages is presented. Through lubricating oil analysis and correlated prescribing,operation phase of equipment is parted. At the same time,every method adapt to every stage is found. At last,availability of the model is validated through a example.
