CAJ | 학술논문

针对城镇燃气聚乙烯（PE ）管道事故具有高风险性、高危害性和随机性的特点，提出了一种综合运用故障树分析（FTA）、层次分析（AHP）和灰色理论的评价方法。该方法利用故障树分析法确定城镇燃气PE管道的主要风险因素，并根据基本事件的割集重要度、概率重要度和关键重要度选取评价指标。在此基础上，建立了一个三层AHP城镇燃气PE管道风险评价指标体系，该体系包含6个一级指标和15个二级指标；然后，运用灰色理论构建层次灰色评价模型来计算综合评价值，确定管道风险度；最后，将该方法运用于某个燃气PE 管段的风险评价，结果表明该管段的综合风险等级为一般，需进行相关的监测与检测，与实际情况符合。该案例研究表明，变权－灰色理论评价模型是一种有效的风险评价方法，可以对城镇燃气PE管道进行风险评价。
침대성진연기취을희（PE ）관도사고구유고풍험성、고위해성화수궤성적특점，제출료일충종합운용고장수분석（FTA）、층차분석（AHP）화회색이론적평개방법。해방법이용고장수분석법학정성진연기PE관도적주요풍험인소，병근거기본사건적할집중요도、개솔중요도화관건중요도선취평개지표。재차기출상，건립료일개삼층AHP성진연기PE관도풍험평개지표체계，해체계포함6개일급지표화15개이급지표；연후，운용회색이론구건층차회색평개모형래계산종합평개치，학정관도풍험도；최후，장해방법운용우모개연기PE 관단적풍험평개，결과표명해관단적종합풍험등급위일반，수진행상관적감측여검측，여실제정황부합。해안례연구표명，변권－회색이론평개모형시일충유효적풍험평개방법，가이대성진연기PE관도진행풍험평개。
For the high-risk,high harmfulness and easy changeable of city-gas PE pipeline accident,the method of comprehensive application of FTA,AHP and grey theory is proposed.It used FTA to get the main risk factor,and then selected the evaluation index according to the magnitude of structural impor-tance degree,probability importance degree and pivotal importance degree.In addition,it established a three-level assessment index system with 6 major factors and 15 sub-factors.Meanwhile,the comprehen-sive assessment value was calculated through the grey theory.The risk of the pipeline was judged by com-paring the comprehensive assessment values.Applied this method to a PE gas pipeline.The result shows that the section is a general risk level and should be detected and monitored .It was consistent with the reality.The case shows that the establishment of the model based on variable weights and grey theory can provide a practical and feasible evaluation model to the risk assessment of city-gas PE pipeline.