CAJ | 학술논문

气候变化背景下，华北平原气候资源也发生了相应变化。研究作物生长季各生育期的水热时空变化特征，对适应气候变化技术与政策的制定有重要意义。本文基于华北平原49个气象站点的逐日气象数据和27个农业气象试验站的物候期数据，分析了1961—2010年在夏玉米营养生长期、并进期、生殖生长期和全生育期的生长度日(GDD)、高温度日(HDD)、降水量及气候倾向率的时空分布。结果显示，华北平原夏玉米各生育期 GDD、HDD 均呈东北?西南走向的递增趋势，降水量呈东南?西北递减趋势。华北平原夏玉米在全生育期GDD倾向率、HDD倾向率、降水量倾向率分别为8.14℃·d·10a?1、?2.45℃·d·10a?1、?10.75 mm·10a?1。华北北部 GDD 在营养生长期呈递减趋势，在并进期、生殖生长期以及全生育期呈递增趋势，而华北南部 GDD 变化趋势与之相反；HDD在各生育期均呈现北部递增，南部递减趋势。降水量在各生育期均表现为北部降低，南部增加趋势。因此，河北省北部、北京市和天津市等华北北部地区夏玉米生产高温风险与干旱风险呈增加趋势，而河南省大部、山东省南部等华北南部地区高温风险与干旱风险呈降低趋势。
기후변화배경하，화북평원기후자원야발생료상응변화。연구작물생장계각생육기적수열시공변화특정，대괄응기후변화기술여정책적제정유중요의의。본문기우화북평원49개기상참점적축일기상수거화27개농업기상시험참적물후기수거，분석료1961—2010년재하옥미영양생장기、병진기、생식생장기화전생육기적생장도일(GDD)、고온도일(HDD)、강수량급기후경향솔적시공분포。결과현시，화북평원하옥미각생육기 GDD、HDD 균정동북?서남주향적체증추세，강수량정동남?서북체감추세。화북평원하옥미재전생육기GDD경향솔、HDD경향솔、강수량경향솔분별위8.14℃·d·10a?1、?2.45℃·d·10a?1、?10.75 mm·10a?1。화북북부 GDD 재영양생장기정체감추세，재병진기、생식생장기이급전생육기정체증추세，이화북남부 GDD 변화추세여지상반；HDD재각생육기균정현북부체증，남부체감추세。강수량재각생육기균표현위북부강저，남부증가추세。인차，하북성북부、북경시화천진시등화북북부지구하옥미생산고온풍험여간한풍험정증가추세，이하남성대부、산동성남부등화북남부지구고온풍험여간한풍험정강저추세。
Significant climate change has occurred across the North China Plain in the past few decades, corresponding to global climate change. Climate change during the growth period of summer maize has caused far-reaching impacts on production in the region, which is one of the most vital summer maize production regions in China. Based on observation data from 49 meteorological stations and 27 agro-meteorological stations, this paper analyzed growth degree days (GDD), heat degree days (HDD) and rainfall, and their climatic trend rates for the vegetative growth phase, vegetative and reproductive growth phase, productive growth phase and whole growth period of summer maize in the North China Plain for the period 1961?2010. The results showed that both GDD and HDD increased from northeast to southwest of the North China Plain. However, rainfall decreased from southeast to northwest of the plain. The climatic trend rates of GDD, HDD and rainfall from 1961 to 2010 in the North China Plain were 8.14℃·d·10a?1,?2.45 ℃·d·10a?1 and ?10.75 mm·10a?1, respectively. Furthermore, GDD decreased during the vegetative growth phase, increased during vegetative and reproductive growth phase, reproductive growth phase and whole growth period of summer maize in northern region of the North China Plain for the period 1961?2010. However, the reverse trends were noted for the southern of the plain. HDD increased in the north but decreased in the southern of the North China Plain. Rainfall decreased in the north but increased in the south for all the growth stages. Consequently, high temperature and drought posed significant risks to summer maize production in <br> the north Hebei Province, Beijing City and Tianjin City in the north of the North China Plain. However, the risks of temperature and drought decreased for most of Henan Province and southern Shandong Province in the south of the North China Plain for the period 1961?2010.