CAJ | 학술논문

为减轻中小桥梁水害带来的危害，本文提出基于流量影响线的中小桥梁水害实时预警预报法：利用历史洪水水痕高程和对应降雨量系列，完成模型标定；将实时雨量系列作为移动荷载组加到已标定模型上，计算实时流量过程线；确定洪峰流量、洪峰水位、洪峰出现时间、高水位持续时间等特征参数，对既有桥梁进行水害实时预警预报。研究结果表明：基于流量影响线的中小桥梁水害实时预警预报法需要参数少，计算简便，预报结果可靠，可以预估洪水灾变可能性及危险程度。其对做好水害预警、合理安排防洪救灾工作具有重要意义。
위감경중소교량수해대래적위해，본문제출기우류량영향선적중소교량수해실시예경예보법：이용역사홍수수흔고정화대응강우량계렬，완성모형표정；장실시우량계렬작위이동하재조가도이표정모형상，계산실시류량과정선；학정홍봉류량、홍봉수위、홍봉출현시간、고수위지속시간등특정삼수，대기유교량진행수해실시예경예보。연구결과표명：기우류량영향선적중소교량수해실시예경예보법수요삼수소，계산간편，예보결과가고，가이예고홍수재변가능성급위험정도。기대주호수해예경、합리안배방홍구재공작구유중요의의。
In order to reduce the harm from the destruction of small and medium bridges caused by floods ,a real‐time flood forecast method based on flow influence line is put forward:Model calibration is accomplished through historical flood water mark elevations and the corresponding rainfall series .The real‐time flow process line is calculated by adding real‐time rainfall series as a group of moving loads on the calibrated model ,so as to determine characteristic parameters ,such as flood‐peak flow ,flood‐peak stage ,flood‐peak time ,duration of high water level ,etc ,and to carry out real‐time flood forecast for bridges .The results show that this method requires less parameters ,and is convenient in practical application and reliable in forecast accuracy .As a result , the possibility and the magnitude of flood disaster could be forecast .The timely alert of flood is of great signifi‐cance to the reasonable arrangement of flood prevention and relief w ork .