CAJ | 학술논문

利用数量技术方法构建了新兴产业市场脆弱性模型，并且用Matlab软件模拟了市场脆弱性演化趋势，利用文献法总结了管理者过度自信的测量方法和成因，用案例研究方法从市场脆弱性和管理者过度自信双视角分析了无锡尚德破产重组的原因。研究得出：新兴产业市场存在市场脆弱性问题，它受政策、偏好和技术三因素的影响显著；当前，新兴产业处于发展阶段，新兴产业的企业应该具备动态竞争能力，不宜采用规模化和成本化战略，宜采用专业化、小规模和差异化的柔性战略；管理者过度自信会让企业决策偏离对市场脆弱性的客观认识，从而导致企业在决策中采取更冒险的决策行为；战略性新兴产业市场脆弱性和管理者过度自信最终导致了无锡尚德的失败。最后，给出了一些管理建议。
이용수량기술방법구건료신흥산업시장취약성모형，병차용Matlab연건모의료시장취약성연화추세，이용문헌법총결료관리자과도자신적측량방법화성인，용안례연구방법종시장취약성화관리자과도자신쌍시각분석료무석상덕파산중조적원인。연구득출：신흥산업시장존재시장취약성문제，타수정책、편호화기술삼인소적영향현저；당전，신흥산업처우발전계단，신흥산업적기업응해구비동태경쟁능력，불의채용규모화화성본화전략，의채용전업화、소규모화차이화적유성전략；관리자과도자신회양기업결책편리대시장취약성적객관인식，종이도치기업재결책중채취경모험적결책행위；전략성신흥산업시장취약성화관리자과도자신최종도치료무석상덕적실패。최후，급출료일사관리건의。
The model of market vulnerability in emerging industry has been constructed by the method of number and tech-nology. And the evolution trend of market vulnerability has been simulated by Matlab software. The causes and methods of managers' overconfidence has summarized by the literature method. And the analysis of the causes of WuXi Shangde solar electric power co. LTD's bankrupt reorganization used the case study method from tow-way viewing-angle of market vulnerabil-ity and managers' overconfidence. According to the study: market vulnerability exists in emerging industry. It was influenced by policy, preference and technology. Now, the emerging market is developing. It should have the dynamic competitive. And it should use the soft strategy of specialization, small scale and differentiation instead of the strategy of scale and cost. In addi-tion, due to the overconfidence, the business decision will deviate from the objective understanding of market vulnerability. And it will cause the risky decision making. The market vulnerability of emerging industry and managers' overconfidence make the Shangde's failure. In the end, there are some suggestions for management.