计算机工程与设计
計算機工程與設計
계산궤공정여설계
COMPUTER ENGINEERING AND DESIGN
2015年
5期
1332-1336
,共5页
智能排班%BP神经网络%话务量预测%Erlang-C%坐席数
智能排班%BP神經網絡%話務量預測%Erlang-C%坐席數
지능배반%BP신경망락%화무량예측%Erlang-C%좌석수
intelligent scheduling%BP neural network%telephone traffic prediction%Erlang-C%agents
分析学习率和训练精度对BP神经网络训练最大次数、收敛时间和话务量预测精度的影响；根据呼叫中心历史话务量数据的日变化特点，提出并验证采用分时间段多次调用BP神经网络模型的方法比整体预测所得话务量预测结果精度更高；基于话务量预测结果，使用Erlang-C公式进行坐席数预测，结合呼叫中心的典型班次、设定的服务水平等参数进行坐席数曲线拟合，得到每个典型班次对应的话务员数量；开发呼叫中心智能排班系统，通过合理的排班实现大型呼叫中心资源的合理配置。
分析學習率和訓練精度對BP神經網絡訓練最大次數、收斂時間和話務量預測精度的影響；根據呼叫中心歷史話務量數據的日變化特點，提齣併驗證採用分時間段多次調用BP神經網絡模型的方法比整體預測所得話務量預測結果精度更高；基于話務量預測結果，使用Erlang-C公式進行坐席數預測，結閤呼叫中心的典型班次、設定的服務水平等參數進行坐席數麯線擬閤，得到每箇典型班次對應的話務員數量；開髮呼叫中心智能排班繫統，通過閤理的排班實現大型呼叫中心資源的閤理配置。
분석학습솔화훈련정도대BP신경망락훈련최대차수、수렴시간화화무량예측정도적영향；근거호규중심역사화무량수거적일변화특점，제출병험증채용분시간단다차조용BP신경망락모형적방법비정체예측소득화무량예측결과정도경고；기우화무량예측결과，사용Erlang-C공식진행좌석수예측，결합호규중심적전형반차、설정적복무수평등삼수진행좌석수곡선의합，득도매개전형반차대응적화무원수량；개발호규중심지능배반계통，통과합리적배반실현대형호규중심자원적합리배치。
The effects of learn ratio and training precision on the maximum training number and convergence time of BP neural network,as well as the accuracy of telephone traffic prediction were analyzed.According to the daily periodic characteristics of history telephone traffic,the idea of using several BP neural network models separately in different time sections of the day im-proves the precision of telephone traffic significantly was proposed and testified.Based on the predicted telephone traffic and Er-lang-C formula,the agent number was calculated.The agent curve fitting was carried out by using typical classes and the as-sumed service level,which calculated the number of telephone representative.The call center intelligent scheduling system was developed based on J2EE,the rational allocation of call center resources was achieved through reasonable scheduling.
