计算机工程与设计
計算機工程與設計
계산궤공정여설계
COMPUTER ENGINEERING AND DESIGN
2015年
5期
1380-1384
,共5页
灰色系统%预测模型%背景值%贫信息%预测精度%初始条件
灰色繫統%預測模型%揹景值%貧信息%預測精度%初始條件
회색계통%예측모형%배경치%빈신식%예측정도%초시조건
grey system%prediction model%background value%poor information%prediction accuracy%initial condition
为进一步提高灰色GM(1,1)模型的模拟精度和预测精度,分析传统GM(1,1)模型存在的缺陷,提出一种改进的GM(1,1)预测模型。对已有GM(1,1)模型的背景值构造公式进一步优化,基于最小二乘法原理改进模型初始值参数的选取策略。对比实验结果表明,改进的模型适用于低增长序列和高增长序列,拓宽了传统GM(1,1)预测模型的应用范围,提高了模拟精度和预测精度。
為進一步提高灰色GM(1,1)模型的模擬精度和預測精度,分析傳統GM(1,1)模型存在的缺陷,提齣一種改進的GM(1,1)預測模型。對已有GM(1,1)模型的揹景值構造公式進一步優化,基于最小二乘法原理改進模型初始值參數的選取策略。對比實驗結果錶明,改進的模型適用于低增長序列和高增長序列,拓寬瞭傳統GM(1,1)預測模型的應用範圍,提高瞭模擬精度和預測精度。
위진일보제고회색GM(1,1)모형적모의정도화예측정도,분석전통GM(1,1)모형존재적결함,제출일충개진적GM(1,1)예측모형。대이유GM(1,1)모형적배경치구조공식진일보우화,기우최소이승법원리개진모형초시치삼수적선취책략。대비실험결과표명,개진적모형괄용우저증장서렬화고증장서렬,탁관료전통GM(1,1)예측모형적응용범위,제고료모의정도화예측정도。
To further enhance the simulation and prediction accuracy of the GM(1 ,1 )model,the defects of GM(1 ,1 )model were analyzed,and an improved GM(1 ,1 )prediction model was proposed.The existing background value formula of GM(1 , 1 )model was further optimized,and based on the least square method,the parameter selection strategy of initial values of the model was improved.The experimental results show that the proposed model is suitable for low growth and high growth se-quences at the same time,which not only broadens the scope of application of the classic GM(1 ,1 )model,but also improves the accuracy of the simulation and prediction of the GM(1 ,1 )model.