CAJ | 학술논문

为探究气候变化下渭干河—库车河三角洲绿洲潜在蒸散量的变化特征。利用基于库车县、沙雅县和新河县三个气象站1961~2012年逐日的平均气温、最低气温、最高气温、相对湿度、日照时数、平均风速等数据，运用Pen-man-Monteith计算渭干河—库车河三角洲绿洲年和四季的潜在蒸散量，并研究其变化趋势。结果表明：过去52年，渭干河—库车河三角洲绿洲年和四季的潜在蒸散量都呈增加趋势，其中年潜在蒸散量增势为12.34 mm/10 a，经历了先减少后增加的变化过程，且后期的增幅大于前期的减幅；四季中，春季增势最为明显，夏季和秋季次之，冬季增势最弱；夏季潜在蒸散量最大、春季和秋季次之，冬季最小。年潜在蒸散量在1989年发生增加突变，并在2001年达到显著水平，且存在28年的大周期和16年的小周期。
위탐구기후변화하위간하—고차하삼각주록주잠재증산량적변화특정。이용기우고차현、사아현화신하현삼개기상참1961~2012년축일적평균기온、최저기온、최고기온、상대습도、일조시수、평균풍속등수거，운용Pen-man-Monteith계산위간하—고차하삼각주록주년화사계적잠재증산량，병연구기변화추세。결과표명：과거52년，위간하—고차하삼각주록주년화사계적잠재증산량도정증가추세，기중년잠재증산량증세위12.34 mm/10 a，경력료선감소후증가적변화과정，차후기적증폭대우전기적감폭；사계중，춘계증세최위명현，하계화추계차지，동계증세최약；하계잠재증산량최대、춘계화추계차지，동계최소。년잠재증산량재1989년발생증가돌변，병재2001년체도현저수평，차존재28년적대주기화16년적소주기。
In order to investigate characteristics of annual and seasonal variation of potential evapotranspira-tion in delta oases of Weigan and Kuqa rivers, this project has calculated annual and seasonal potential evapo-transpiration of three meteorological stations based on datasets from Kuqa, Shaya and Xinhe and Pen-man-Monteith model promoted by FAO. The results shows that annual and seasonal potential evapotranspira-tion all present increasing trend during past 52 years. The annual potential evapotranspiration increases by 12.34 mm/10 a. The potential evapotranspiration rises most significantly in spring, significant in summer and fall, non-significant in winter. Whereas, the potential evapotranspiration happened most in summer, more in spring and fall, less in winter. The annual evapotranspiration abrupted in 1989 and reached significant level in 2001, and has a duration 28 years and 16 years .