CAJ | 학술논문

通过对松墨天牛灾害发生风险进行剖析，以灾害发生过程中所表现出来的与警源、警兆、警情相关的不同风险因子作为统计指标，建立了松墨天牛灾害预警指标体系框架和内容，并对预警指标体系指标值权重进行设置，构建松墨天牛灾变的监测预警模型。选取南昌市昌北地区2014年松墨天牛发生情况为例进行风险警级评估，计算其综合预警指标值为Y＝97．6。由此判定2014年松墨天牛在南昌市昌北地区预警警级为三级，即为重警，该预警的情况与实际发生的情况相吻合。
통과대송묵천우재해발생풍험진행부석，이재해발생과정중소표현출래적여경원、경조、경정상관적불동풍험인자작위통계지표，건립료송묵천우재해예경지표체계광가화내용，병대예경지표체계지표치권중진행설치，구건송묵천우재변적감측예경모형。선취남창시창북지구2014년송묵천우발생정황위례진행풍험경급평고，계산기종합예경지표치위Y＝97．6。유차판정2014년송묵천우재남창시창북지구예경경급위삼급，즉위중경，해예경적정황여실제발생적정황상문합。
By analyzing the risk of calamity of Monochamus alternatus Hope,the framework and contents of the early?warning index system against calamity of M.alternatus were established based on the different risky factors related to the risky source,risky sign and risky cause exhibiting in the process of calamities occurrence. The monitoring and early?warning models were also structured by setting up the weight indexes of the early?warning index system.Using the occurrence data of M.alternatus in Changbei district,Nanchang city in 2014 as an example,the risky degree was assessed,and the integrated early?warning value was:Y=97.6.The risky de?gree of calamity of M.alternatus was of the third degree,or the severe risk degree.This result coincided with the actual occurrence of M.alternatus in this occurrence area.