CAJ | 학술논문

本文运用结构路径分析法，选取行业与生产要素等成本因素，探讨了中国谷物价格波动的传导机制。分析结果表明：一方面，不同行业中间投入及生产要素对谷物价格影响的传递机制存在差异。其中，化肥、农药、种子费、水电、物流与仓储、农业生产支持性服务、非熟练劳动力及土地成本的变化会对谷物价格产生显著直接影响；而其他行业、熟练劳动力和资本对谷物的价格冲击主要通过间接路径来传导。另一方面，从谷物价格冲击对居民的影响来看，无论是城镇居民或农村居民，低收入群体受谷物价格冲击的影响较大，收入相对较高群体受间接路径冲击的影响较大。
본문운용결구로경분석법，선취행업여생산요소등성본인소，탐토료중국곡물개격파동적전도궤제。분석결과표명：일방면，불동행업중간투입급생산요소대곡물개격영향적전체궤제존재차이。기중，화비、농약、충자비、수전、물류여창저、농업생산지지성복무、비숙련노동력급토지성본적변화회대곡물개격산생현저직접영향；이기타행업、숙련노동력화자본대곡물적개격충격주요통과간접로경래전도。령일방면，종곡물개격충격대거민적영향래간，무론시성진거민혹농촌거민，저수입군체수곡물개격충격적영향교대，수입상대교고군체수간접로경충격적영향교대。
Using structural path analysis, this paper examines the transmission mechanism of grain price fluctuation by considering factors like cost of sector input, production factor.The result shows that, on the one hand, different factors impact on grain price through different mechanism.In particular, fertilizer, pesticide, seed, water and electricity supply, logistics and warehousing, supporting service of agriculture, unskilled la-bor and land have significant direct impact on grain price.Meanwhile, costs of other industries, skilled labor and capital have indirect impact on grain price.On the other hand, low-income residents of both urban and rural households are more easily affected by grain price shock, while residents of higher income are influenced in an indirect channel.