CAJ | 학술논문

20世纪90年代以来，中国人口已由新中国成立初期的“高出生率，高死亡率”转变为“低出生率，低死亡率”，人口老龄化速度加快，人口红利将不断减小，依靠大量劳动力的粗放型经济增长方式难以持续。基于此，通过建立计量模型分析人力资本对经济增长的贡献，结果显示，人力资本对经济增长的贡献率不高但边际产出较大，人力资本在促进经济增长方面还有较大的提升空间。
20세기90년대이래，중국인구이유신중국성립초기적“고출생솔，고사망솔”전변위“저출생솔，저사망솔”，인구노령화속도가쾌，인구홍리장불단감소，의고대량노동력적조방형경제증장방식난이지속。기우차，통과건립계량모형분석인력자본대경제증장적공헌，결과현시，인력자본대경제증장적공헌솔불고단변제산출교대，인력자본재촉진경제증장방면환유교대적제승공간。
Since the 1990s,the population feature of China has changed from the early“high birth rate,high death rate”into“the low birth rate,low death rate”. Population aging speed keeps accelerating,and China’s demographic dividend will continue to decrease. This condition makes the extensive economic growth which relies on a large number of labors unsustainable. Based on this background,the article establishes an econo-metric model to analyze the contribution of human capital to economic growth. The results show that the human capital does not have a high contribution rate to economic growth but it has a high marginal output, so there is great room for its development.