湖南文理学院学报(自然科学版)
湖南文理學院學報(自然科學版)
호남문이학원학보(자연과학판)
JOURNAL OF HUNAN UNIVERSITY OF ARTS AND SCIENCE(SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY)
2015年
2期
39-42
,共4页
周鑫%黄创霞%谭艳祥
週鑫%黃創霞%譚豔祥
주흠%황창하%담염상
概率分布拟合%遗传算法%BP神经网络
概率分佈擬閤%遺傳算法%BP神經網絡
개솔분포의합%유전산법%BP신경망락
probability distribution fitting%genetic algorithm%BP neural network
采用概率分布拟合和基于遗传算法的 BP 神经网络的预测建模对风电功率波动特性进行定量分析。首先,针对风电功率实测数据建立了概率分布拟合模型并分析了拟合结果;其次,建立了基于不同时间间隔历史实测数据的BP神经网络预测模型,数据检验表明该模型对于峰值有很理想的预测精度且整体精度较高。
採用概率分佈擬閤和基于遺傳算法的 BP 神經網絡的預測建模對風電功率波動特性進行定量分析。首先,針對風電功率實測數據建立瞭概率分佈擬閤模型併分析瞭擬閤結果;其次,建立瞭基于不同時間間隔歷史實測數據的BP神經網絡預測模型,數據檢驗錶明該模型對于峰值有很理想的預測精度且整體精度較高。
채용개솔분포의합화기우유전산법적 BP 신경망락적예측건모대풍전공솔파동특성진행정량분석。수선,침대풍전공솔실측수거건립료개솔분포의합모형병분석료의합결과;기차,건립료기우불동시간간격역사실측수거적BP신경망락예측모형,수거검험표명해모형대우봉치유흔이상적예측정도차정체정도교고。
The fluctuation of wind power is analyzed by probability distribution fitting and forecasting model of BP neural networkbased to quantitative. Firstly, the distribution fitting probability model is established according to the measured data of wind power;secondly, BP neural network prediction model for different time intervals of history data is established;the existing data test show that the model for the peak has a very good prediction and the overall prediction accuracy is higher. The obtained results have certain guiding significance to create balance mechanism of wind power effectively.