水资源与水工程学报
水資源與水工程學報
수자원여수공정학보
JOURNAL OF WATER RESOURCES AND WATER ENGINEERING
2015年
2期
51-57
,共7页
孙炼%李春晖%贾晓丽%王烜%蔡宴朋
孫煉%李春暉%賈曉麗%王烜%蔡宴朋
손련%리춘휘%가효려%왕훤%채연붕
水资源%水资源供需预测%STELLA%水资源供需系统模型%安徽省
水資源%水資源供需預測%STELLA%水資源供需繫統模型%安徽省
수자원%수자원공수예측%STELLA%수자원공수계통모형%안휘성
water resources%prediction of supply and demand of water resources%STELLA%supply and demand model of water resources%Anhui Province
利用系统动力学软件STELLA建立由水资源供给和居民、工业、农业、生态环境、公共需水等子系统组成的水资源供需系统模型,对安徽省2012-2030年水资源供需情势进行模拟分析,模拟效果较好。参数灵敏度分析表明,模型结果对工业增加值增长率、万元工业增加值用水量、农田有效灌溉系数的变化最为敏感。基于此提出应对水资源短缺问题的3种综合调控方案(方案I,方案Ⅱ和方案Ⅲ)。结果表明:与现有发展模式相比,方案I和方案Ⅱ延迟了水资源短缺的时间;以经济平稳增长、生态环境友好为目标的方案Ⅲ则会有效地解决未来水资源供需矛盾。最后在各种模式的基础上提出了应对水资源问题措施,为缓解安徽省水资源矛盾、优化水资源配置提供参考。
利用繫統動力學軟件STELLA建立由水資源供給和居民、工業、農業、生態環境、公共需水等子繫統組成的水資源供需繫統模型,對安徽省2012-2030年水資源供需情勢進行模擬分析,模擬效果較好。參數靈敏度分析錶明,模型結果對工業增加值增長率、萬元工業增加值用水量、農田有效灌溉繫數的變化最為敏感。基于此提齣應對水資源短缺問題的3種綜閤調控方案(方案I,方案Ⅱ和方案Ⅲ)。結果錶明:與現有髮展模式相比,方案I和方案Ⅱ延遲瞭水資源短缺的時間;以經濟平穩增長、生態環境友好為目標的方案Ⅲ則會有效地解決未來水資源供需矛盾。最後在各種模式的基礎上提齣瞭應對水資源問題措施,為緩解安徽省水資源矛盾、優化水資源配置提供參攷。
이용계통동역학연건STELLA건립유수자원공급화거민、공업、농업、생태배경、공공수수등자계통조성적수자원공수계통모형,대안휘성2012-2030년수자원공수정세진행모의분석,모의효과교호。삼수령민도분석표명,모형결과대공업증가치증장솔、만원공업증가치용수량、농전유효관개계수적변화최위민감。기우차제출응대수자원단결문제적3충종합조공방안(방안I,방안Ⅱ화방안Ⅲ)。결과표명:여현유발전모식상비,방안I화방안Ⅱ연지료수자원단결적시간;이경제평은증장、생태배경우호위목표적방안Ⅲ칙회유효지해결미래수자원공수모순。최후재각충모식적기출상제출료응대수자원문제조시,위완해안휘성수자원모순、우화수자원배치제공삼고。
The paper built the supply and demand model of water resources which comprised the subsystems such as water resources supply , domestic , industry , agriculture , ecology and environment , public water de-mand by using system dynamic software STELLA to simulate the supply and demand situation of water re -sources in Anhui from 2012 to 2030 .The simulation result is good .The sensitivity analysis of parameters shows that the model is robust to the change in model parameters related to the growth rate of industrial add -ed value, water demand of industrial added value per 10,000 Yuan and effective irrigation coefficient of farmland.The three different scenarios ( scenarioⅠ, scenarioⅡ, and scenarioⅢ) of water shortage condi-tions were proposed .The scenarioⅠand Ⅱdelayed the time of water resources shortage compared with cur-rent development mode .While scenarioⅢcan solve the contradiction of water shortage in the coming 18 years by pursuing the aim of stable economic growth and ecology -friendly .In the end , the paper put for-ward some measures to deal with the problem of water resources which can provide reference for alleviating the contradiction of water resources shortage and the optimum allocation of water resources in Anhui .