CAJ | 학술논문

流域水环境模型是研究流域水体黑臭、水体富营养化和水质超标问题的重要工具，流域水环境模型从概念上可以分为（半）机理模型和经验型模型，前者通过方程式和函数关系来刻画流域水动力和迁移转化规律，并通过实测数据校准获取本土化的参数系数，后者力图寻求大数据量间的统计学规律。按照模拟对象的不同，流域水环境模型还可以划分为陆域的污染负荷模拟模型、水域的受纳水体模拟模型，以及水-陆耦合模拟模型。模型对整个流域系统及其内部发生的复杂地球化学过程进行定量化描述，污染负荷模型一般用来估算点源及非点源产生的污染负荷量，并计算出进入河道的污染负荷量，作为受纳水体模型的污染源边界输入条件；受纳水体模型一般用来模拟沉积物或污染物在河流、湖泊、水库、河口、沿海等水体中的运动和衰减转化过程，是水质预测、评价、分析的重要工具。传统的流域模型多用评价自然活动以及人类活动对水环境造成的影响，而当前越来越多的学者将水环境模型与经济学模型进行耦合，开展基于水环境模型的环境政策设计和优化研究。文章从系统控制的视角，主要总结了水量水质耦合流域模型在水资源管理政策、水环境管理政策中的应用，例如水资源有效分配、排污交易产生的水环境影响、基于成本-效益的水污染控制策略优化等。在此基础上文章对流域水环境模型的发展方向和应用前景进行了的展望，流域水环境容量控制策略、目标总量控制策略的水环境影响比较分析以及水环境模型的不确定性研究将是未来关注的重点所在，尤其不确定性问题经常存在于水污染物产排放预测和水环境质量模拟预测过程中，对于提升环境规划与管理的科学性、有效性具有十分重要的现实意义。流域水環境模型是研究流域水體黑臭、水體富營養化和水質超標問題的重要工具，流域水環境模型從概唸上可以分為（半）機理模型和經驗型模型，前者通過方程式和函數關繫來刻畫流域水動力和遷移轉化規律，併通過實測數據校準穫取本土化的參數繫數，後者力圖尋求大數據量間的統計學規律。按照模擬對象的不同，流域水環境模型還可以劃分為陸域的汙染負荷模擬模型、水域的受納水體模擬模型，以及水-陸耦閤模擬模型。模型對整箇流域繫統及其內部髮生的複雜地毬化學過程進行定量化描述，汙染負荷模型一般用來估算點源及非點源產生的汙染負荷量，併計算齣進入河道的汙染負荷量，作為受納水體模型的汙染源邊界輸入條件；受納水體模型一般用來模擬沉積物或汙染物在河流、湖泊、水庫、河口、沿海等水體中的運動和衰減轉化過程，是水質預測、評價、分析的重要工具。傳統的流域模型多用評價自然活動以及人類活動對水環境造成的影響，而噹前越來越多的學者將水環境模型與經濟學模型進行耦閤，開展基于水環境模型的環境政策設計和優化研究。文章從繫統控製的視角，主要總結瞭水量水質耦閤流域模型在水資源管理政策、水環境管理政策中的應用，例如水資源有效分配、排汙交易產生的水環境影響、基于成本-效益的水汙染控製策略優化等。在此基礎上文章對流域水環境模型的髮展方嚮和應用前景進行瞭的展望，流域水環境容量控製策略、目標總量控製策略的水環境影響比較分析以及水環境模型的不確定性研究將是未來關註的重點所在，尤其不確定性問題經常存在于水汙染物產排放預測和水環境質量模擬預測過程中，對于提升環境規劃與管理的科學性、有效性具有十分重要的現實意義。
류역수배경모형시연구류역수체흑취、수체부영양화화수질초표문제적중요공구，류역수배경모형종개념상가이분위（반）궤리모형화경험형모형，전자통과방정식화함수관계래각화류역수동력화천이전화규률，병통과실측수거교준획취본토화적삼수계수，후자력도심구대수거량간적통계학규률。안조모의대상적불동，류역수배경모형환가이화분위륙역적오염부하모의모형、수역적수납수체모의모형，이급수-륙우합모의모형。모형대정개류역계통급기내부발생적복잡지구화학과정진행정양화묘술，오염부하모형일반용래고산점원급비점원산생적오염부하량，병계산출진입하도적오염부하량，작위수납수체모형적오염원변계수입조건；수납수체모형일반용래모의침적물혹오염물재하류、호박、수고、하구、연해등수체중적운동화쇠감전화과정，시수질예측、평개、분석적중요공구。전통적류역모형다용평개자연활동이급인류활동대수배경조성적영향，이당전월래월다적학자장수배경모형여경제학모형진행우합，개전기우수배경모형적배경정책설계화우화연구。문장종계통공제적시각，주요총결료수량수질우합류역모형재수자원관리정책、수배경관리정책중적응용，례여수자원유효분배、배오교역산생적수배경영향、기우성본-효익적수오염공제책략우화등。재차기출상문장대류역수배경모형적발전방향화응용전경진행료적전망，류역수배경용량공제책략、목표총량공제책략적수배경영향비교분석이급수배경모형적불학정성연구장시미래관주적중점소재，우기불학정성문제경상존재우수오염물산배방예측화수배경질량모의예측과정중，대우제승배경규화여관리적과학성、유효성구유십분중요적현실의의。
Watershed environmental models were very important tools for studying water blackening and smell, eutrophication and many other problem of water pollution. Watershed environmental models comprised of pollution load models, water quality models, and aquatic-land coupling models, either mechanistic or empirical. Mechanistic models focus on characterizing hydrodynamics and transformation, and calibrating parameter through measured data of localization, empirical models focus on statistical rule for large quantities of data. Models comprehensively qualified the internal complex pollution process within entire watershed system. Pollution load models usually estimated load from pollution sources, and calculated load of pollutant discharged into rivers. Water quality models often simulated transporting and degrading processes of several pollutants in rivers, lakes, etc. Conventionally, watershed models have been widely used to evaluate non-point source pollution and analyze water quality impacted by environmental management strategies, such as emission trading. Nowadays models have been further expanded to couple with economic model for designing and optimizing environmental policy. In this paper, the coupling model of water quantity and water quality were applicated in water resource management and water environment management policy, which including water resource allocation, effect of emission trading, trade-off in cost & benefit analysis were reviewed. Finally, development and prospect of watershed environmental models were carried out. We should compare environmental impact by both the target strategy and environmental capacity strategy, which will be more meaningful. Uncertainty of model problems may also need emphasized if we continue to dig deep. Most of the researchers always set the approach of optimizing as a deterministic situation, actually, far from it. Uncertainty and risk associated with the quantification and prediction of waterborne pollutant loads and abatement effects. It may be very important practical significant to enhance the effectiveness of scientific environment planning and management.