CAJ | 학술논문

文章从动态贫困的视角，基于新疆30个贫困县3000个农户的跟踪调查数据，分析得出新疆现阶段的农村贫困主要是暂时性贫困，且和田的暂时性贫困程度最高，克州的慢性贫困程度最高。进一步采用有序Logit模型，在控制地区固定效应的前提下，着重研究了家庭特征、村庄特征对农户陷入慢性贫困和暂时性贫困的影响，发现子女数、老人数与教育费用支出的增加，以及村庄经济作物播种面积的减少容易使农户陷入慢性贫困，自然灾害的发生与粮食播种面积的减少容易使农户陷入暂时性贫困。最后提出，政府在未来新疆扶贫工作中，应针对慢性贫困户和暂时性贫困户实施不同的精准扶贫对策。
문장종동태빈곤적시각，기우신강30개빈곤현3000개농호적근종조사수거，분석득출신강현계단적농촌빈곤주요시잠시성빈곤，차화전적잠시성빈곤정도최고，극주적만성빈곤정도최고。진일보채용유서Logit모형，재공제지구고정효응적전제하，착중연구료가정특정、촌장특정대농호함입만성빈곤화잠시성빈곤적영향，발현자녀수、노인수여교육비용지출적증가，이급촌장경제작물파충면적적감소용역사농호함입만성빈곤，자연재해적발생여양식파충면적적감소용역사농호함입잠시성빈곤。최후제출，정부재미래신강부빈공작중，응침대만성빈곤호화잠시성빈곤호실시불동적정준부빈대책。
In light of dynamic poverty and using the data of 3000 rural households from 30 poverty counties in Xinjiang during the years 2008-2010, this paper found that the present poverty in Xinjiang is transient. Kizilsu prefecture being the highest level of chronic poverty area and Hetian the highest level of transient poverty area. Using the Ordered Logit Model, it studied the effects of household characteristics and village characteristics on rural households’ falling into transient poverty and chronic poverty. The households with more children, the elderly, and the expenditure on education led households easily into chronic poverty, and the occurrences of natural disasters and the decrease of crop sown area reduced households easily to chronic poverty. In the future the government should take effectives measures to alleviate chronic poverty and transient poverty in Xinjiang.