CAJ | 학술논문

为评价城市轨道交通车站内发生拥挤踩踏事故的风险，对国内典型的城市轨道交通车站拥挤踩踏事故进行统计分析，并运用事故树理论对事故致因进行定性分析和研究。结合事故树分析结果建立城市轨道交通车站拥挤踩踏事故的评价指标体系，运用数据包络法（DEA ）建立拥挤踩踏事故的风险评价模型。以北京海淀黄庄地铁站为例进行风险评价模型的应用与分析。结果表明，有75％的评价单元达到了DEA有效的标准，且非DEA有效评价单元的相对安全效率指数均在0．9以上。评价结果与车站实际情况基本相符，验证了评价模型的准确性与实用性。
위평개성시궤도교통차참내발생옹제채답사고적풍험，대국내전형적성시궤도교통차참옹제채답사고진행통계분석，병운용사고수이론대사고치인진행정성분석화연구。결합사고수분석결과건립성시궤도교통차참옹제채답사고적평개지표체계，운용수거포락법（DEA ）건립옹제채답사고적풍험평개모형。이북경해정황장지철참위례진행풍험평개모형적응용여분석。결과표명，유75％적평개단원체도료DEA유효적표준，차비DEA유효평개단원적상대안전효솔지수균재0．9이상。평개결과여차참실제정황기본상부，험증료평개모형적준학성여실용성。
In order to assess the risk of crowd crushing and tramping accidents at metro rail transit stations ,the typical crowd crushing and tramping accidents at metro rail transit stations in China were analyzed .The theory of fault tree was used to qualitatively analyze the cause of accidents .The indicator system of the crowd crushing and tramping ac‐cidents at metro rail transit stations was proposed and developed in combined with the results of fault tree analysis .Data envelopment analysis (DEA) was used in the establishment of risk assessment model of crowd crushing and tramping acci‐dents .Huangzhuang Subway Station of Haidian ,Beijing was selected as a case study to test and analyze the risk assess‐ment model .The results show that 75% of the decision‐making units reach the DEA efficient standard ,and the relative safety efficiency indices of the decision‐making units ,which are none‐DEA efficiency ,are more than 0 .9 .The test results are generally consistent with the real situation ,which proves that the proposed risk assessment model is practical .