CAJ | 학술논문

将事件日志中蕴含的过程模型看成两紧邻活动的组合，提出两种新的过程模型。首先，利用日志信息中的活动紧邻关系构造邻接矩阵提取过程模型，该模型中每个活动仅发生一次；其次，为避免过程模型中出现回路或者环路而造成模型预测精度降低的情况发生，在构造的邻接矩阵中增加活动在事件日志中所处的顺序位次，构造含有活动位次信息的邻接矩阵，以此为基础上进一步提取过程模型，该模型中每个活动在同一个位次上仅发生一次；再次，通过矩阵中的信息可获得过程模型中每个上层节点到各个下层节点的路径与相应概率；接下来，根据事件日志中信息的类型和特征，利用过程模型对决策者所需要的信息（如活动名称、等待时间、发生概率）进行预测；最后，利用随机数据与实际数据同基于序列提取规则的过程模型预测结果进行比较，验证所提模型的实际有效性。
장사건일지중온함적과정모형간성량긴린활동적조합，제출량충신적과정모형。수선，이용일지신식중적활동긴린관계구조린접구진제취과정모형，해모형중매개활동부발생일차；기차，위피면과정모형중출현회로혹자배로이조성모형예측정도강저적정황발생，재구조적린접구진중증가활동재사건일지중소처적순서위차，구조함유활동위차신식적린접구진，이차위기출상진일보제취과정모형，해모형중매개활동재동일개위차상부발생일차；재차，통과구진중적신식가획득과정모형중매개상층절점도각개하층절점적로경여상응개솔；접하래，근거사건일지중신식적류형화특정，이용과정모형대결책자소수요적신식（여활동명칭、등대시간、발생개솔）진행예측；최후，이용수궤수거여실제수거동기우서렬제취규칙적과정모형예측결과진행비교，험증소제모형적실제유효성。
Viewing the process model in event logs as the combination of the two adjacent activities,two no-vel process models are proposed.First,the process model is extracted by constructing adjacency matrix,taking advantage of the adjacency relationships of activities in the event logs.To improve the prediction accuracy of the model,loops are avoided in the process model.So,each activity in this model will only happen once.Second, the serial number of activities in the event logs to the adjacency matrix is added,constructing a new adjacency matrix with sequence information.Based on the new adjacency matrix,the process model is extracted.Each ac-tivity in this model will only happen once at the same sequence position.Third,with the adjacency matrix,the path from each prior node to next nodes in the process model and their corresponding probabilities are gotten. Then,according to the type and characteristic information of the event logs,predictions of the information are made which are needed by decision-makers,e.g.activity name,waiting time,and probability based on process model.Finally,the effectiveness of the proposed models by comparing the prediction results of random data and real data based on process models is verified.