CAJ | 학술논문

为了贴近客观实际地评价油气管道施工质量风险，提出了基于属性识别模型的风险评价方法。首先建立属性空间矩阵并进行有序分割，采用客观赋权的熵权法和主观赋权的G1法组合赋权确定各评价指标权重和属性测度，利用置信度准则对模型进行识别，得到管道施工质量降低可能性等级。然后评价管道施工质量降低的后果，依据风险矩阵得到施工质量风险等级。算例表明：人员的素质、错误行为、施工工艺方法和管理方法对油气管道施工质量的影响较大。管段S4、S5发生油气管道施工质量降低的可能性偏高，通过风险矩阵得到管段S4、S5的风险等级也偏高。因此，管道公司和施工单位应着重管控管段S4、S5的风险因素。
위료첩근객관실제지평개유기관도시공질량풍험，제출료기우속성식별모형적풍험평개방법。수선건립속성공간구진병진행유서분할，채용객관부권적적권법화주관부권적G1법조합부권학정각평개지표권중화속성측도，이용치신도준칙대모형진행식별，득도관도시공질량강저가능성등급。연후평개관도시공질량강저적후과，의거풍험구진득도시공질량풍험등급。산례표명：인원적소질、착오행위、시공공예방법화관리방법대유기관도시공질량적영향교대。관단S4、S5발생유기관도시공질량강저적가능성편고，통과풍험구진득도관단S4、S5적풍험등급야편고。인차，관도공사화시공단위응착중관공관단S4、S5적풍험인소。
In order to realistically evaluate the risk on construction quality of oil &gas pipelines, a risk evaluation method was put forward based on attribute recognition model.Firstly, the attribute space matrix was established and orderly divided.The combination weight assigning of entropy weight method with objective weight assigning and G1 method with subjective weight assigning was applied to determine the weight and attribute measurement of each e-valuation index.The confidence criterion was used to recognize the model and obtain the possibility level of quality reduction in pipelines construction.Finally, the result of quality reduction in pipelines construction was evaluated, and the risk grade was obtained by risk matrix.The given example showed that the construction quality of oil&gas pipelines is greatly affected by the quality and wrong behaviors of personnel, construction technology and manage-ment method.The possibility that the construction quality of oil&gas pipelines will reduce in section S4 and S5 is higher.There is a high level of risk in section S4 and S5 by risk matrix.Therefore, attention and concern should be paid to manage and control the risk factors in section S4 and S5 by pipeline company and construction company..