CAJ | 학술논문

利用博弈理论，建立了出行者出行方式选择行为的博弈模型，并将一次博弈模型扩展至重复博弈模型。通过分析得到出行者合作策略稳定运行的条件，即当博弈方都比较注重长远利益的情况下会选择合作策略。由于出行者在进行博弈时，可能会“犯错误”，因此建立了具有颤抖效应的重复博弈模型，给出了博弈方在可能犯错情况下的收益，这种情况更符合实际，通过分析得到了在博弈方都比较注重长远利益的情况下均会采取触发策略。本文从理论上建立了有效地激励出行者选择公交车出行的决策机制、激励惩罚机制，并针对目前的公共交通现状给出了相应的对策与建议，以期为公共交通建设创新提供依据。
이용박혁이론，건립료출행자출행방식선택행위적박혁모형，병장일차박혁모형확전지중복박혁모형。통과분석득도출행자합작책략은정운행적조건，즉당박혁방도비교주중장원이익적정황하회선택합작책략。유우출행자재진행박혁시，가능회“범착오”，인차건립료구유전두효응적중복박혁모형，급출료박혁방재가능범착정황하적수익，저충정황경부합실제，통과분석득도료재박혁방도비교주중장원이익적정황하균회채취촉발책략。본문종이론상건립료유효지격려출행자선택공교차출행적결책궤제、격려징벌궤제，병침대목전적공공교통현상급출료상응적대책여건의，이기위공공교통건설창신제공의거。
The trip model choice behavior of the travelers is established by game theory, and it is extended from one time game to repeated games. The stable operation condition of the cooperation strategy is obtained, that is the players will cooperate with each other if they pay more attention to the long-term interests. Because the travelers would make mistakes, the shaking effect of repeated games model is established. And the revenue of players is given in this case which is more in line with the actual. Then it is proved that the players will take trigger strategy if they pay more attention to the long-term interests. In addition, effective decision-making mechanism and incentive-punishment mechanism are set up in order to encourage travelers to choose bus travel. At last, the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are given according to the present situation of public transport in order to provide the reference for public transportation construction innovation.