CAJ | 학술논문

随着交通拥堵状况日益显著，整体交通安全性下降，交通事故率逐渐增大。基于提高驾驶安全性考虑，细化元胞长度，引入被广泛证明在描述车辆驾驶行为方面具有很高精度的Gipps安全距离规则，对NaSch模型进行改进，提出一个新的基于安全距离的元胞自动机交通流模型。采用实测数据对模型进行标定和评估，进一步对模型进行数值模拟分析。模型评估结果显示，新建立的模型相对NaSch模型精度更高。数值模拟结果表明，改进模型能够很好地表现交通流特性，再现实际交通中的自由流、同步流及拥堵流等交通现象。此外，还发现驾驶员对前车最大减速度估计过高时，会导致道路通行能力下降，而驾驶员对自身车辆最大减速度估计过高时，会在一定程度上增大道路的通行能力，但是很可能会造成不安全的驾驶行为，增加了事故率。
수착교통옹도상황일익현저，정체교통안전성하강，교통사고솔축점증대。기우제고가사안전성고필，세화원포장도，인입피엄범증명재묘술차량가사행위방면구유흔고정도적Gipps안전거리규칙，대NaSch모형진행개진，제출일개신적기우안전거리적원포자동궤교통류모형。채용실측수거대모형진행표정화평고，진일보대모형진행수치모의분석。모형평고결과현시，신건립적모형상대NaSch모형정도경고。수치모의결과표명，개진모형능구흔호지표현교통류특성，재현실제교통중적자유류、동보류급옹도류등교통현상。차외，환발현가사원대전차최대감속도고계과고시，회도치도로통행능력하강，이가사원대자신차량최대감속도고계과고시，회재일정정도상증대도로적통행능력，단시흔가능회조성불안전적가사행위，증가료사고솔。
With the traffic congestion increasing significantly, traffic safety level declines and traffic accident rate increases gradually. To improve driving safety, the length of the cellular cells is fined, and the Gipps’safe distance rule is introduced to improve the NaSch model, further, a new cellular automata traffic flow model is proposed. The Gipps’safe distance rule is widely proved to have good performance in describing the vehicle driving behavior. In addition, we use the field data to calibrate and evaluate the proposed model. The numerical simulation analysis is carried out to analyze the model. Model evaluation results show that the performance of the new model is better than NaSch model. The simulation results show that the improved model can describe the traffic flow characteristics well and can reproduce free flow, synchronized flow, congestion and other traffic phenomenon in the real traffic flow. Furthermore, the study also found that the drivers’overestimation of the maximum deceleration of vehicle ahead will lead to decreased road capacity. However, the drivers’overestimation of their own vehicle maximum deceleration will increase the capacity of the road, but is likely to cause unsafe driving behaviors and increase accident rate.