交通运输系统工程与信息
交通運輸繫統工程與信息
교통운수계통공정여신식
JOURNAL OF COMMUNICATION AND TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS ENGINEERING AND INFORMATION
2015年
2期
210-215,222
,共7页
交通工程%级联失效%贝叶斯网络推理%道路网络%仿真
交通工程%級聯失效%貝葉斯網絡推理%道路網絡%倣真
교통공정%급련실효%패협사망락추리%도로망락%방진
traffic engineering%cascading failures%Bayesian network inference%road network%simulation
针对道路网络级联失效与其它复杂网络相比具有的特殊性，基于贝叶斯网络推理，融合驾驶者出行先验及出行信息，研究了道路网络级联失效的演变机理及演变过程。编制MATLAB程序生成基于道路网络的贝叶斯网络结构，根据贝叶斯网络参数学习MATLAB程序，学习了驾驶者感知路段属性变化；给出了仿真算法，仿真了贝叶斯网络推理中不同出行先验权重，以及出行信息量对道路网络属性及级联失效的影响。结果表明，贝叶斯网络推理可以较好地反映驾驶者出行路段选择对道路网络级联失效的定量影响，为研究道路网络级联失效提供了新的研究思路和方法。
針對道路網絡級聯失效與其它複雜網絡相比具有的特殊性，基于貝葉斯網絡推理，融閤駕駛者齣行先驗及齣行信息，研究瞭道路網絡級聯失效的縯變機理及縯變過程。編製MATLAB程序生成基于道路網絡的貝葉斯網絡結構，根據貝葉斯網絡參數學習MATLAB程序，學習瞭駕駛者感知路段屬性變化；給齣瞭倣真算法，倣真瞭貝葉斯網絡推理中不同齣行先驗權重，以及齣行信息量對道路網絡屬性及級聯失效的影響。結果錶明，貝葉斯網絡推理可以較好地反映駕駛者齣行路段選擇對道路網絡級聯失效的定量影響，為研究道路網絡級聯失效提供瞭新的研究思路和方法。
침대도로망락급련실효여기타복잡망락상비구유적특수성，기우패협사망락추리，융합가사자출행선험급출행신식，연구료도로망락급련실효적연변궤리급연변과정。편제MATLAB정서생성기우도로망락적패협사망락결구，근거패협사망락삼수학습MATLAB정서，학습료가사자감지로단속성변화；급출료방진산법，방진료패협사망락추리중불동출행선험권중，이급출행신식량대도로망락속성급급련실효적영향。결과표명，패협사망락추리가이교호지반영가사자출행로단선택대도로망락급련실효적정량영향，위연구도로망락급련실효제공료신적연구사로화방법。
The characteristics of road networks cascading failures are studied to other complex networks. The evolution of mechanism and process of road networks cascading failures are studied by integrating travel prior experience and travel information based on Bayesian network inference. The Bayesian network structure of road network is generated by MATLAB program. The driver's perception of road properties change is learned based on the MATLAB program of Bayesian network parameter learning. We design the simulation algorithms and simulate the effects of different travel prior experiences and travel information by Bayesian network inference to the road network properties and cascading failures. The results show that Bayesian network inference can better reflect the quantitative impact of link choice on road network cascading failures. The research provides new idea and method for the study of cascading failures.
