CAJ | 학술논문

深入研究客运市场需求，是有效开展客运产品营销工作的前提。区别于既有的以问卷调查为基础的旅客选择行为研究，本文利用客票销售数据研究铁路客运产品选择偏好的估计方法。该方法考虑了部分时段部分列车在供不应求情况下，客票存根数据难以反映旅客真实选择行为的特点，根据预售期内各产品的实时余票数据，对预售期进行划分，建立了分时段的极大似然函数。针对所构建的似然函数，利用EM算法处理流失客流不可获知的问题，从而估计旅客选择偏好。通过实例，估计了徐州东至南京南方向旅客对京沪高铁客运产品的选择偏好。该方法以日常销售数据为基础，能够及时获取旅客选择偏好，具有较强的时效性，可为铁路日常营销工作提供参考。
심입연구객운시장수구，시유효개전객운산품영소공작적전제。구별우기유적이문권조사위기출적여객선택행위연구，본문이용객표소수수거연구철로객운산품선택편호적고계방법。해방법고필료부분시단부분열차재공불응구정황하，객표존근수거난이반영여객진실선택행위적특점，근거예수기내각산품적실시여표수거，대예수기진행화분，건립료분시단적겁대사연함수。침대소구건적사연함수，이용EM산법처리류실객류불가획지적문제，종이고계여객선택편호。통과실례，고계료서주동지남경남방향여객대경호고철객운산품적선택편호。해방법이일상소수수거위기출，능구급시획취여객선택편호，구유교강적시효성，가위철로일상영소공작제공삼고。
A deep study of demand is the basis for passenger transportation marketing. With an increasing attention of passenger choice behavior in recent years, most of the studies estimate passenger preference based on investigation data. In this paper, sales data is utilized to estimate passenger preference. First, a likelihood function considering the availability of products during the sales period is proposed. Since the formulated likelihood is an incomplete-data function, Expectation-Maximization (EM) method is used to solve the incomplete-data problem. An empirical study is taken to analyze the choice preference of high-speed trains for the OD market Xuzoudong to Nanjingnan. As the sales data is convenient to obtain compared to investigation data, this research is meaningful for supporting the daily marketing of railway department.