CAJ | 학술논문

基于前景理论，研究交通事故下出行者路径选择行为规律。应用前景理论，考虑交通事故的发生概率，以出行者出行总花费时间作为出行效用，提出出行者路径选择的效用函数；然后通过分析出行者效用函数的分布规律，在出行效用连续随机分布的条件下，建立出行者感知效用模型。通过连续函数离散化方法构建出行者路径选择模型。通过一个算例，描述非理性条件下出行者选择行为，并分析交通事故的特征对效用值和选择结果的影响，说明感知效用为0的参考点并不是路径实际效用分布的期望值，而是比期望值小。
기우전경이론，연구교통사고하출행자로경선택행위규률。응용전경이론，고필교통사고적발생개솔，이출행자출행총화비시간작위출행효용，제출출행자로경선택적효용함수；연후통과분석출행자효용함수적분포규률，재출행효용련속수궤분포적조건하，건립출행자감지효용모형。통과련속함수리산화방법구건출행자로경선택모형。통과일개산례，묘술비이성조건하출행자선택행위，병분석교통사고적특정대효용치화선택결과적영향，설명감지효용위0적삼고점병불시로경실제효용분포적기망치，이시비기망치소。
Based on prospect theory, travelers' route choice behavior under traffic incident is studied. First, utility function of travelers' route choice is proposed applying prospect theory, and total travel time is taken as utility, considering probability of traffic incident. Then, after analysis the distribution regularity of utility function, travelers' perception utility is modeled considering the utility obeying continuous random distribution. Through discrete series for continuous function, route choice model is built. A case study is conducted to describe the route choice behavior, and the influence of characteristic of traffic incident to utility and choice result are analyzed, which illustrates that the reference point when perception utility equals to zero is not the expectation of actual utility distribution, less than the expectation.