CAJ | 학술논문

面向小汽车和公交组成的多方式交通网络，建立公交到站时间迭代表达式，分别给出公交及小汽车的时间可靠性计算方法，构建包含时间可靠性的多方式交通网络均衡模型并设计求解算法。计算结果表明，开辟公交专用道及增加公交发车频率这两项措施，均能提高公交自身的时间可靠性及分担率，同时也能改善小汽车的时间可靠性，但是后者还会增加公交积聚概率；而增加公交站点间距，将降低公交分担率，同时也将增加公交集聚的发生概率；随着乘车站数的增加，公交时间可靠性及分担率降低，特别是下游公交线路分担率降低更为显著。
면향소기차화공교조성적다방식교통망락，건립공교도참시간질대표체식，분별급출공교급소기차적시간가고성계산방법，구건포함시간가고성적다방식교통망락균형모형병설계구해산법。계산결과표명，개벽공교전용도급증가공교발차빈솔저량항조시，균능제고공교자신적시간가고성급분담솔，동시야능개선소기차적시간가고성，단시후자환회증가공교적취개솔；이증가공교참점간거，장강저공교분담솔，동시야장증가공교집취적발생개솔；수착승차참수적증가，공교시간가고성급분담솔강저，특별시하유공교선로분담솔강저경위현저。
A bus arrival time iterative expression is established under assumption of stoachastic travel time and bus dwell time at stops, and then the time reliability calculation method is presented based on bus arrival time in a multi-mode transport network of car and bus. A multi-modal transportation network equilibrium model with time reliability and its solution algorithm are both proposed and applied to a multi-mode network and a bus route. The results show that bus lanes and higher bus frequency both could improve the time reliability of bus, bus split and time reliability of car, but the latter will also increase the probability of bus bunching;the higher spacing of bus stops will reduce the rate of bus split, but will increase probability of bus bunching; when more bus stations added to a bus route, bus time reliability and bus split will decrease, especially the bus split in the downstream bus routes decrease significantly.