CAJ | 학술논문

本文通过评估全球金融危机（GFC）和结构变化对于国际储备（IR）积累模式的影响，认为发展中国家和发达国家对于国际储备的需求模式呈现不同态势，一国国际储备的合适水平并不是一成不变的，其决定因素会随着全球经济发展产生变化。同时，在对国际储备的历史模式分析的基础上，本文对国际储备预测结果与汇率变动之间可能存在的联系进行了研究。
본문통과평고전구금융위궤（GFC）화결구변화대우국제저비（IR）적루모식적영향，인위발전중국가화발체국가대우국제저비적수구모식정현불동태세，일국국제저비적합괄수평병불시일성불변적，기결정인소회수착전구경제발전산생변화。동시，재대국제저비적역사모식분석적기출상，본문대국제저비예측결과여회솔변동지간가능존재적련계진행료연구。
This paper evaluates the impact of the global financial crisis (GFC) and structural changes in the pat-terns of hoarding international reserves (IR) and find that developed countries display different demand behaviors for IR from developing countries. This paper also confirms that the appropriate level of IR is not necessarily constant and the determinants of IR hoarding evolve with developments in the global economy. Based on the analysis of historical pat-terns of IR, this paper studies the possible links between our estimates of IR holding and the observed exchange rate movements.